Holywell vs The New Saints: match statistics

The New Saints are clear favourites: they have won 11 of their 12 league matches and all of their last 5, while Holywell are still without a win and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The visitors scored 22 goals across those five matches, compared with just 3 for the hosts, underlining the gulf in attacking efficiency. Away from home, The New Saints average 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Holywell score 1.17 goals per game at home but concede as many as 3. The visitors also have the edge in chance quality: their away xG stands at 2.5, compared with Holywell’s 1.03 at home, while their respective xG against figures are 0.64 and 1.73. With The New Saints winning 80% of their away matches and Holywell yet to win at home, an away victory is the most likely outcome.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is based on recent form: Holywell have averaged just 0.6 goals across their last 5 matches, while The New Saints have conceded only 0.4. The visitors have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their league matches, and their average xG conceded over their last 5 games was just 0.54, further limiting the hosts’ chances of scoring. At the same time, The New Saints have recently averaged 4.4 goals, while Holywell have conceded 2.2, making it unlikely that the visitors will fail to score. Although Holywell’s season average at home is as high as 3.57 goals scored, their last 5 appearances point to a clear dip in finishing. The more likely scenario, therefore, is that the visitors get on the scoresheet while the hosts fail to score. BTTS - No means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

The New Saints have won their last five matches, scoring an average of 4.4 goals, while Holywell conceded an average of 2.2 goals over the same period. The quality of chances also favors the visitors: their average xG across their last five matches is 2.62, while Holywell allowed opponents chances worth 1.64 xG. I take a more cautious view of the hosts’ scoring record, as they have recently scored just 0.6 goals per match, while the visitors have conceded only 0.4. The projected total of 3.5 goals supports Over 1.5 goals, particularly as this line was cleared in 71% of Holywell’s matches and 80% of The New Saints’ matches. This is a stronger signal than the one for higher lines, where the visitors’ solid defense increases the risk that most of the goals will need to come from one side.

The strongest signal is recent form: The New Saints have won all five of their matches, while Holywell have lost four and drawn once. The visitors held a lead at the break in four of those five matches and averaged 2.4 first-half goals, while the hosts were trailing at half-time three times and conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the first half. The visitors’ advantage could persist after the break, as they averaged 2.0 second-half goals and conceded none across their last five matches, while Holywell averaged just 0.2 goals in that period. The hosts’ season figures—an average of 3.57 goals scored and a perfect winning record in the available sample—call for caution, so scenarios in which they take the lead retain a meaningful share. Despite this discrepancy, the teams’ current form most strongly points to The New Saints leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes.