Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced rivalry with a slight inclination towards a draw. Homeboyz presents a high percentage of draws in home matches (56%), and their recent form includes 3 draws in 5 matches. TransMara Sugar is also characterized by defensive play on the road with 60% draws and a solid defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per match). Homeboyz holds a slight advantage in possession (52% vs 44%) and scoring (1.67 vs 1.2 goals per match), yet their recent home form is unstable (many draws). TransMara shows better overall form in the last 5 matches (1.4 PPG vs 1.2 PPG) and an impressive 40% clean sheets away. Considering the tendency of both teams to draw and the even xG values, the most probable result is a sharing of points.
Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Homeboyz played TransMara Sugar in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 24 January 2026. Final score: 3:3.
Current form
Homeboyz: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. TransMara Sugar: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Homeboyz scores 1.22 and concedes 1.17 goals per match. TransMara Sugar scores 0.76 and concedes 0.88. League average: 1.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Homeboyz 56%, TransMara Sugar 35%. Over 2.5: Homeboyz 39%, TransMara Sugar 24%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
Homeboyz has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.46. Homeboyz: 9.2 shots per match, TransMara Sugar: 10.9.
Match halves
Homeboyz: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.39. TransMara Sugar: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.35.
Goals by minute
Homeboyz: 0-15 (12 goals). TransMara Sugar: 0-15 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 1.98 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced rivalry with a slight inclination towards a draw. Homeboyz presents a high percentage of draws in home matches (56%), and their recent form includes 3 draws in 5 matches. TransMara Sugar is also characterized by defensive play on the road with 60% draws and a solid defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per match). Homeboyz holds a slight advantage in possession (52% vs 44%) and scoring (1.67 vs 1.2 goals per match), yet their recent home form is unstable (many draws). TransMara shows better overall form in the last 5 matches (1.4 PPG vs 1.2 PPG) and an impressive 40% clean sheets away. Considering the tendency of both teams to draw and the even xG values, the most probable result is a sharing of points.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Homeboyz | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 46% | 23% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
TransMara Sugar is 150% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Homeboyz · 1 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Homeboyz is 61% better for: goals scored per match.
1.22 goals / match - Homeboyz · 0.76 goals / match - TransMara Sugar
TransMara Sugar is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.17 goals / match - Homeboyz · 0.88 goals / match - TransMara Sugar
Homeboyz scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while TransMara Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 41% (7 of 17 matches).
TransMara Sugar scores in 53% of matches (9 of 17 matches), while Homeboyz keeps a clean sheet in 22% (4 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Homeboyz
Over / Under - TransMara Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Homeboyz is 45% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Homeboyz · 0.88 pts / match - TransMara Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Homeboyz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
TransMara Sugar - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Homeboyz
TransMara Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Homeboyz | Liga | TransMara Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.39 | 1.98 | ▼ 1.65 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 43% | ▼ 35% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 39% | 32% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 22% | 36% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 33% | 31% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 39% | 34% | • 35% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Homeboyz 0 - 1 - 0 TransMara Sugar. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Homeboyz 3:3 TransMara Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar?
Homeboyz score 1.22 goals per game on average and TransMara Sugar 0.76. The Kenyan Premier League average is 1.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Homeboyz's matches and 35% of TransMara Sugar's.
What form are Homeboyz and TransMara Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Homeboyz have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and TransMara Sugar 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Homeboyz vs TransMara Sugar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.