Horsens vs Nordsjælland: match statistics

Horsens shows superior form over the last five matches: 9 goals scored and 4 wins (form: wwdww), while Nordsjælland have 6 goals and only 1 win from five (dlddw). Defensively the home side hold a clear advantage — Horsens conceded only 1 goal in those five games versus 4 for the visitors, indicating greater defensive stability for the hosts. The difference in points efficiency is also notable: the hosts average 2.6 points per game over the last 5, compared to Nordsjælland’s 1.2, nearly half. League position (Horsens 3rd, Nordsjælland 7th) and recent goal differentials (9–1 vs 6–4) favor the home team, especially given their unbeaten run of 4 wins and 1 draw. Therefore I back a Horsens victory, although Nordsjælland’s 3 draws in the last 5 give the visitors a realistic chance to take a point.

In the last 5 matches Horsens has only 20% BTTS, scoring 9 goals (1.8 avg) and conceding 1 goal (0.2 avg), while Nordsjælland has 60% BTTS, 6 goals (1.2 avg) and 4 conceded (0.8 avg). In terms of xG the visitors create more chances — Nordsjælland has xG 1.91 vs 1.45 for Horsens — and their xG_for 1.91 exceeds the hosts' xG_against 1.36 by 0.55, which theoretically favors a visiting goal. However, in practice Horsens has conceded only 1 goal in 5 matches, indicating strong defensive efficiency and translating into a low home BTTS (20%). Form difference also favors the home side: Horsens 'wwdww' (4 wins, 1 draw) versus the visitors 'dlddw' (1 win, 1 loss, 3 draws). For these reasons I assign higher probability to the 'No' outcome — I assess BTTS at 35% for 'Yes' and 65% for 'No'.

In the last 5 matches Horsens averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, while Nordsjælland averages 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded; their average xG are 1.45 for Horsens and 1.91 for Nordsjælland, with xG against of 1.36 and 1.54 respectively. The mean of these values translates to expected goals of 1.50 for the home side and 1.63 for the visitors, totaling 3.13 expected goals; the distribution model indicates ~82% probability of Over 1.5 goals and ~61% probability of Over 2.5 goals. Horsens have scored 9 and conceded only 1 in their last 5 matches, while Nordsjælland have scored 6 and conceded 4; the percentage of matches in which each side scored is 20% for the home team and 60% for the away team, suggesting visitors more often find the net, but the home side is efficient. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (82% probability) and I recommend this line to play; Over 2.5 is moderately likely (61%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (38%).

Horsens shows a clear advantage in the data: the home side won 4 of the last 5 matches (80%), while Nordsjælland won only 1 of 5 (20%). At half-time Horsens led in 3 of 5 games (60%), and the visitors only in 1 of 5 (20%), so the strongest signal points to the home team leading at the break. Goal statistics confirm this picture — Horsens averaged 1.8 goals per game versus 1.2 for Nordsjælland and conceded an average of 0.2 goals compared to 0.8 for the opponent; after the break the hosts averaged 1.2 goals and the visitors 0.6. Additionally, the hosts won the second half in 80% of cases and, according to second-half data, did not concede in the second half in 5/5 records (100%), which increases the probability of maintaining the lead; therefore the most secure scenario is 1/1 (approximately 51% chance).