Houston Dynamo FC II vs San Jose Earthquakes II: match statistics

Houston Dynamo FC II sit 3rd in the home standings and win 80% of their matches at home, while San Jose Earthquakes II win just 27% of their away games. The hosts average 2.5 goals scored per home match, concede just 0.5, and have a +20 goal difference. San Jose concede an average of 1.64 goals away from home, keep a clean sheet in only 9% of matches, and allow opponents an xG of 1.72, which favors Houston’s attack with an xG of 1.73. The visitors’ recent form is particularly poor: they have failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals and averaging 0.4 points per game. Houston are not in perfect rhythm either, but the fact that they keep a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, combined with a clearly superior shot-conversion rate—17% versus 12%—points to an advantage for the hosts.

The BTTS - No scenario has a slight edge, primarily due to Houston’s very solid defense, which concedes only 0.78 goals per match on average this season and keeps a clean sheet in 22% of its games. San Jose have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their run of three defeats and two draws confirms their current finishing problems. The hosts should nevertheless find a way to score, as they average 2.33 goals, while San Jose concede 1.64 goals per match and keep clean sheets in only 9% of their games. Although the visitors have produced a decent xG of 1.84 over the last five rounds, their low actual goal tally and Houston’s season BTTS rate of 44% suggest that at least one side may fail to score.

Houston score an average of 2.33 goals at home, while San Jose concede 1.64 goals away from home, so the hosts should have clear potential to score at least one or two goals. At the same time, San Jose have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of 0.4 per game, while Houston’s defence has conceded only 0.78 goals per match throughout the season. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 18% of games, limiting the chances of a high-scoring response from the away side. Historically, under 3.5 goals has been recorded in 67% of Houston’s matches and 55% of San Jose’s games, despite the league producing a high average of 3.24 goals. The projected total of 2.60 goals points towards the Under 3.5 outcome, as a scenario featuring four or more goals would require a significantly more effective performance from the visitors than their current form suggests.

Houston have been leading at the break in 56% of their matches this season, with that figure rising to 75% over their last five games; San Jose have failed to take the lead at any point during this period. The hosts average 1.33 goals before half-time, compared with just 0.82 for the visitors, while San Jose have not scored a single first-half goal in their last five appearances. Houston’s advantage is also evident over the full match: they win 56% of their games, score an average of 2.33 goals and concede just 0.78, compared with San Jose’s 27% win rate and average of 1.64 goals conceded. After the break, the visitors concede an average of 1.27 goals, making Houston to lead at the break and secure the victory—the 1/1 HT/FT outcome—the most likely scenario.