Houston Dynamo vs SJ Earthquakes: match statistics

Houston Dynamo come into this match having won 4 of their last 5 games, while SJ Earthquakes have failed to win any of their matches during the same period and suffered 4 defeats. The hosts have conceded just 2 goals in their last five games, while at home they concede an average of 0.7 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances. San Jose’s defence is currently significantly less stable, having conceded 14 goals in their last five matches and averaging 1.4 goals conceded away from home. Houston create chances worth an average of 1.42 xG at home, compared with the visitors’ 1.23 xG away from home, and also record 4.2 shots on target per match against 3.7 for their opponents. The Earthquakes are dangerous on the road, where they score an average of 2 goals, but their poor current form and Houston’s advantage in defensive organisation point to a home win.

The scenario of both sides scoring is primarily supported by the season data: Houston records BTTS in 55% of matches, while San Jose does so in as many as 70%, with an average of 1.73 and 2.00 goals scored, respectively. Houston should create plenty of chances, averaging 16.82 shots and 6.64 shots on target per match, while San Jose concedes an average of 1.40 goals, rising to as many as 2.80 across its last five appearances. However, the hosts’ very strong current defensive form limits the visitors’ scoring chances, as Houston has conceded just 0.40 goals per game in its last five matches, with BTTS landing in only 20% of those fixtures. Nevertheless, San Jose’s current xG stands at 1.53, higher than the 1.26 xG Houston has allowed recently, so a single goal from the visitors remains realistic. The BTTS - Yes pick is moderately preferable, as San Jose’s weak defence should provide the hosts with a goal, while the visitors’ seasonal profile still points towards an attacking response.

Houston average 1.73 goals per match, while San Jose concede 1.40, with the hosts creating a very solid 1.86 xG and recording 6.64 shots on target per game. However, the strongest argument is the visitors’ current defensive form: they have conceded as many as 14 goals in their last 5 matches, or 2.8 per game, while Houston have won 4 of those 5 fixtures. At least 2 goals were scored in 91% of Houston’s matches and 70% of San Jose’s, while both teams have a 100% record of matches featuring at least one goal. The Over 2.5 goals line is also supported by both teams’ season figures, standing at 64% for Houston and 60% for San Jose, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer choice. The projected total of 3.10 goals is driven primarily by the hosts’ attacking advantage over the visitors’ unstable defence.

Houston are in clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.4, while San Jose have failed to win any of their last five fixtures and have allowed opponents to score 2.8 goals per game. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors were never ahead after 45 minutes during this period and went into half-time trailing in as many as 60% of cases. In addition, Houston conceded just 0.2 goals per game before the break, compared with San Jose’s 1.4, further strengthening the scenario of the hosts taking the lead in the first half. Over the entire season, the visitors have the better points record, 1.9 compared with 1.27, but their current crisis and Houston’s recent defensive performances clearly shift the forecast towards a home win at half-time and at full-time.