Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha: match statistics

The favorite is Slavia Praha — the visitors have scored 60 goals this season versus Hradec’s 40, and average 1.93 goals away compared to the hosts’ 1.43 at home. Slavia creates more high-quality chances: on average 15.29 shots and 5.21 shots on target per match and xG 1.79 away, while Hradec at home records 10.79 shots, 3.71 on target and xG 1.33. Hradec, however, has strong defensive arguments at home — only 0.79 goals conceded per match and 57% of matches with a clean sheet, whereas Slavia also concedes 0.79 goals away on average but has a lower 36% clean-sheet rate. In the last 5 matches Slavia scored 10 goals and averages 2.2 points from their last five, while Hradec has 6 goals and averages 2.0 points, indicating an offensive edge for the visitors. Considering the higher shot volume, superior xG (1.79 vs 1.33) and the fact Slavia remain unbeaten this season (0 losses), I expect a Slavia victory.

I assess the 'No' scenario (No Goal / not both teams to score) as more likely at ~72% probability (BTTS 'Yes' ~28%). The primary signal comes from the home form: Hradec averages 2.36 goals scored per home match and concedes only 0.64, with a seasonal home clean sheet rate of 57%, and xG_for 2.3 vs xG_against 1.08, indicating control and a high likelihood of a clean sheet. Slavia does score on the road (1.93 avg) and has 64% BTTS with xG_for 1.79, but they register fewer on-target shots (5.21 vs 7.36 for Hradec), which weakens their attacking edge against a well-defending home side. In the last 5 matches Hradec had only 20% BTTS at home, while Slavia had 60% BTTS in their last five away games; additionally the league features a 60% clean sheet rate overall, favoring the scenario that at least one team will fail to score. Under a simple independence approximation, combining clean sheet rates of 57% and 36% yields an estimated no-BTTS probability of ~72% (1 − (0.57+0.36−0.57*0.36) ≈ 0.725), which consistently supports the 'No' selection.

Based on xG I project roughly 3.15 total goals: expected goals are 1.72 for Hradec (attacking xG 2.30 vs xG conceded to Slavia 1.13) and 1.43 for Slavia (attacking xG 1.79 vs xG conceded to Hradec 1.08). Hradec at home scores on average 2.36 goals and concedes 0.64 per match, while Slavia away scores 1.93 and concedes 0.79; the hosts also have 57% clean sheets. Over/Under stats show a mixed picture: Hradec have 64% of matches over 2.5 goals, Slavia only 36%, however in the last 5 matches Slavia scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and had 60% of games over 2.5, which raises the chance of more goals. Additionally Hradec average 19.93 shots and 7.36 on target (xG 2.30), and Slavia 15.29 shots and 5.21 on target (xG 1.79), indicating a home offensive advantage. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 2.5 — I estimate its probability at about 72% (for comparison Over 1.5 ~90%, Over 3.5 ~40%) due to the combined xG of 3.15 and Slavia’s goal form in the last five matches.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the home win at full-time (X/1): the home team averages 1.43 goals after the break and concedes only 0.21, winning the second half in 71% of matches (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.43, conceded_2hg_avg_home = 0.21, wins_2hg_percentage_home = 71%). I expect a draw at the break because both teams have identical first-half goal averages (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.93 vs scoredAVGHT_away = 0.93) and in the last 5 matches the home team had a half-time draw in 60% of cases (last5_drawingAtHT_overall_home = 60%). Hradec’s advantage in xG and shots also supports them: home xG 2.3 versus Slavia’s 1.79 and average shots 19.93 vs 15.29, with similar conversion rates 12% vs 13%, which yields more clear chances after the break. Note that Slavia led at half-time in 50% of their matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 50%), so scenarios with the away team leading at the break have a meaningful share in the distribution, but the single strongest signal remains X/1. Additionally, Hradec scored 9 goals in the 46–60 minute window versus Slavia’s 2 in that phase, confirming that decisive strikes often occur in the early part of the second half.