Hradec Králové vs Slovan Liberec: match statistics

I assess the home side as more likely to win: Hradec averages 1.47 goals scored and concedes only 0.8 goals per home match, with a 53% win rate and 53% clean sheets at home. In the last 5 matches Hradec have a 3-1-1 record and average 2 points per game, while Slovan over the same period have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with an average of 0.8 points. The visitors produce more shots on the road (13.56 shots and 5 shots on target per match) and have a higher away xG (1.58), but their conversion is only 11% and they scored 4 goals in the last 5 games versus Hradec’s 8. The defensive differential is significant: Hradec’s home xG against is 1.63 with an actual 0.8 goals conceded, while Liberec concede 1.38 goals away with an xG against of 1.56, which combined with 53% clean sheets for the hosts versus 25% for the visitors gives Hradec a defensive advantage. Considering the better home goal difference (+10 vs +2 away for Liberec), higher shot conversion (14% for Hradec vs 11% for the visitors) and superior form (PPG 2 vs 0.8), I tip a home win.

I project BTTS - Yes based on a strong form signal: in the last 5 matches Hradec had BTTS in 80% of games and Slovan in 60%, indicating that 4 of the home team’s last 5 matches featured goals from both sides. Both teams have identical seasonal xG for of 1.58, and similar average shots (13.69 vs 13.56) with on-target figures of 4.5 and 5.0, so they create comparable goal-scoring opportunities. Seasonally Hradec records a lower BTTS rate (38%) and a higher clean sheet expected rate (44%), but in the last 5 matches they’ve actually conceded 1.2 goals on average with xG against of 1.8, while Slovan conceded 1.6 goals with xG against 1.36 — meaning both sides have been conceding recently. Additionally, Slovan’s seasonal BTTS rate is 56% and their matches more often finish over 2.5 goals (56%), while the league average BTTS is 51% with an average of 2.6 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of goal exchange. For these reasons, the last-5 form signals and identical xG for of 1.58 support the BTTS scenario, so I assign it higher probability.

Based on xG: Hradec has an attacking xG of 1.58 while Liberec concedes an average xG against of 1.56, yielding expected goals for Hradec ≈1.57; Liberec has attacking xG 1.58 and Hradec concedes 1.21 xG, so expected goals for Liberec ≈1.40 and total ≈2.97. Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 69% (Hradec) and 81% (Liberec) — with a simple combined probability 1 - 0.31*0.19 we get ≈94% chance for Over 1.5. Both teams average 13.7 and 13.6 shots per match and 4.5/5.0 shots on target, with conversion rates 9%/11%, which further favors goal scoring. Over 2.5 receives moderate support (1 - 0.75*0.44 ≈67%), while Over 3.5 looks weaker (1 - 0.94*0.62 ≈42%), therefore the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5.

A draw at half-time appears most likely: Hradec were level at the break in 50% of matches and Liberec in 44%, yielding approximately a 47% chance of an HT draw given both trends. After 90 minutes the favorite is Hradec — seasonally the home side win 44% of matches versus 31% for Liberec, and in the last five fixtures Hradec have a 60% win rate compared to just 20% for Liberec. Both teams share the same xG (1.58), but Hradec concede an average of 1.21 xG per match versus 1.56 for Liberec and lose 0.75 goals per game compared to 1.38 for the visitors, supporting a defensive edge for the hosts. Additionally, Hradec have collected 31 points in second halves and average 1.94 points per match after the break, winning second halves in 56% of cases, so they have the conditions to execute a turnaround after the interval. Consequently the strongest scenario is a Half-Time draw with a Home win Full-Time (X/1), with draw/draw (X/X) and Home leading from HT to FT (1/1) reasonable alternative options.