Hrvace vs Dubrava Zagreb: match statistics

I back the home win (1): Hrvace average 1.47 goals per home game and have a positive home goal difference (+6) with average possession of 56%. The hosts create more and convert better — 9.27 shots and 4.0 shots on target per match with a 16% conversion rate, while Dubrava away averages 8.6 shots, 3.67 on target and only 9% efficiency, translating to just 0.8 goals per game. Defensively Hrvace are also marginally more solid at home (1.07 goals conceded per match and xG against 1.06) versus Dubrava, who concede 1.27 goals away and have xG against 1.38. The visitors, however, are in better form: in the last 5 matches they averaged 2 points per game (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) and scored 8 goals, while Hrvace in that period averaged 1.2 points per game and 6 goals. Considering Hrvace’s advantage in home metrics (higher efficiency, greater possession and positive GD) and Dubrava’s poor away finishing (0.8 goals per game and 47% of matches without scoring), I assess the probabilities as 55% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.

Hrvace averages 1.47 goals scored and concedes 1.53, while Dubrava has 0.8 scored and 1.27 conceded; xG is 1.38 vs 1.29, showing both teams generate roughly 1.3 xG per game and have realistic scoring chances. Hrvace records BTTS in 59% of season matches, Dubrava in 40%, and the league BTTS average is 44% — this shifts the bias toward the home side as a more frequent participant in Goal/Goal matches. Offensively the sides are similar in shots on target (3.65 vs 3.67), but Hrvace has a higher shot conversion rate (15% vs 9%), meaning the hosts convert chances into goals more often, while Dubrava has averaged 1.6 goals over the last 5 matches. On the other hand both teams concede a lot (46 and 45 this season) and there is divergence in recent BTTS form: Hrvace 20% vs Dubrava 60%, which weakens the signal for the home side. Overall, considering similar xG ~1.3, high goals conceded (1.53/1.27) and Dubrava’s offensive improvement, I give a moderate edge to the 'BTTS - Yes' scenario.

Based on xG and statistical indicators, expected goals are 1.38 for Hrvace (xG_for 1.38 and average xG conceded by Dubrava 1.38) and 1.36 for Dubrava (xG_for 1.29 and average xG conceded by Hrvace 1.42), totaling 2.74 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.74 implies roughly a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals (24% Under), 52% for Over 2.5 and 30% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Hrvace average 10.06 shots per match with a 15% conversion rate and 1.47 goals per game on average, while Dubrava average 8.6 shots, 9% conversion and 0.80 goals; Hrvace’s efficiency advantage increases the likelihood of goals. Seasonal metrics support this: Hrvace matches register Over 1.5 goals in 76% of games, Dubrava in 60%, and Both Teams To Score rates are 59% for Hrvace and 40% for Dubrava. Considering the 2.74 expected goals, Hrvace’s shot and conversion superiority and the high frequency of Over 1.5 matches, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the best line.

Hrvace has a clear edge in converting chances: goals per game 1.47 versus 0.80 for Dubrava, xG 1.38 vs 1.29 and shot conversion 15% vs 9% for the visitors. At half-time the hosts score on average 0.65 goals compared to 0.33 for Dubrava; Hrvace led at the break in 5 matches (29%) while Dubrava led away only in 2 (13%), and Hrvace’s first half ends with a goal in 76% of fixtures. A model based on first- and second-half averages (1st half: 0.65 vs 0.33, 2nd half: 0.82 vs 0.47) indicates the strongest signal is the hosts leading at the break and maintaining the lead to full-time – HT/FT 1/1 has the highest probability in our model at approximately 32%. Additionally, the season home win rate 53% vs the visitors’ 20% and the fact that Hrvace scores on average 0.82 goals after the break (vs 0.47) reinforce this scenario, while X/1 (19%) and 2/2 (10%) are statistically weaker options. Therefore I recommend 1/1 as the primary signal derived from the comparison of goal averages and indicators for goals before and after the break.