Hull City vs Aston Villa: match statistics

Hull City have won both of their league matches so far, scoring 3 goals and conceding none, while Aston Villa have lost both games with a 0:5 goal difference. The hosts average 2 goals per match at home and have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their appearances, whereas the visitors concede as many as 4 goals per away game. Villa have yet to register a shot on target in away matches, average 0 goals scored, and have an average xG of just 0.55. Although Hull’s average xG is low at 0.97 and they allow opponents chances worth 2.37 xG, Aston Villa’s disastrous run of five consecutive defeats and 11 goals conceded in their last five matches strongly reinforce the case for backing the hosts.

The strong signal for BTTS - No is not primarily based on both teams’ very poor finishing: Hull and Aston Villa have not yet scored in their current-season data, with each team failing to score in 100% of these matches. Average xG figures are low, at 0.69 for the hosts and 0.55 for the visitors, with just 7 and 6 shots per match, respectively. In their last five matches, Hull averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Villa scored only 0.6 goals despite their defence allowing an average of 2.2. BTTS in the last five outings stood at 20% for Hull and 60% for Aston Villa, but the visitors’ particularly low attacking potential increases the likelihood that at least one side will once again fail to score. The “No” selection is more compelling than the league BTTS average of 50%, although Villa’s weak defence gives Hull a realistic chance of finding the net.

Hull have scored an average of 0.8 goals and conceded just 0.6 over their last 5 matches, indicating a low baseline goal-scoring level for the hosts. Aston Villa are on a five-game losing streak, averaging 0.6 goals per match, with an xG of 0.92, making a significant attacking contribution from the visitors difficult to expect. Villa’s poor defensive record, conceding 2.2 goals per game, raises Hull’s projection to around 1.35 goals, but the hosts average only 7 shots. Although 80% of Villa’s recent matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, the combined projection of 2.10 goals and Hull’s defensive effectiveness primarily support an outcome below 3.5 goals.

Hull City are showing clearly better current form: they have averaged 1.6 points over their last five matches, while Aston Villa have lost all five of their games. During this period, the hosts conceded just 0.6 goals per match, compared with 2.2 for the visitors, while Villa’s average of 0.6 goals scored was also notably low. Hull led at the break in 20% of their recent matches and were level at half-time in 60%, whereas Villa have not led at half-time on any occasion, losing the first half in 60% of cases. Particularly significant is that the visitors conceded an average of 1.6 goals before the break while scoring just 0.2, strongly supporting Hull’s advantage in the first half. The scenario of Hull leading at half-time and winning the match is therefore the strongest, although a draw at half-time followed by a Hull victory remains a realistic alternative.