I.S.P.E vs Dagon: match statistics

Dagon top the table after winning both of their opening matches, with a 7:0 goal difference, while I.S.P.E sit 12th after losing both games and conceding 6 goals. At home, the hosts have conceded 4 goals, whereas Dagon scored 5 without reply in their only away match so far. The visitors also have the edge defensively: they have conceded 7 goals in their last five matches, compared with 10 for I.S.P.E. However, the hosts are capable of creating chances — their average home xG is 1.87, and they have scored 8 goals in their last five matches — so an I.S.P.E goal cannot be ruled out. Given the small sample of matches this season, Dagon’s advantage should be assessed cautiously, although the results so far clearly point to an away win.

I’m backing BTTS - Yes, as I.S.P.E averaged 1.6 goals and Dagon 1.8 in their last 5 matches. Both defences allowed opponents chances: I.S.P.E conceded an average of 2.0 goals during this period, and Dagon 1.4, with 1.34 and 1.71 xG conceded respectively. Their attacking xG in these matches also supports goals from both sides, standing at 2.18 for I.S.P.E and 1.66 for Dagon. However, caution is warranted: BTTS landed in 100% of the hosts’ last 5 matches, but in only 20% of the visitors’ matches. Despite this discrepancy, both teams’ consistent pattern of scoring and conceding gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both find the net.

In their last 5 matches, I.S.P.E averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, giving a total of 3.6 goals per game. Over the same period, Dagon averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with an average xG of 1.66 compared with the 1.34 xG allowed by I.S.P.E. The case for goals is also supported by the league average of 3.58 goals and the fact that Over 2.5 goals landed in 100% of the hosts’ last 5 matches and 60% of the visitors’ games. However, season-long data calls for caution with higher lines: the hosts have had no match finish Over 2.5 goals, while the visitors have gone Over this line in every match. Therefore, with a projected total of 3.35 goals, the safest pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an estimated probability of 85%.

The strongest signal is Dagon leading at the break and holding on to the advantage through to the final whistle: in their last 5 matches, the visitors led at half-time twice, while I.S.P.E were trailing at that point three times. Dagon averaged 1.0 goals before the break, compared with 0.4 for the hosts, supporting a 2/2 scenario from the first 45 minutes. Across their last 5 matches, the visitors averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the hosts averaged 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded, giving Dagon a slight edge in the full-time result assessment as well. The visitors’ average of just 0.4 goals conceded after the break supports them maintaining their lead, although the hosts scored 1.2 goals in that period, so a turnaround cannot be ruled out. Dagon’s season average of 5 goals and I.S.P.E’s 2 are based on just one match for each team, so I do not regard them as equally strong confirmation of the 2/2 pick as the data from the last 5 matches.