ÍA vs Breidablik: match statistics

ÍA have a slight home advantage: they average 1.73 goals at home with an xG of 1.84, while Breidablik allow opponents an away xG of 2.04 and concede 1.75 goals per match. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 16.64 shots and 5.18 on target, compared with 13.58 shots and 4.58 on target for the visitors away from home. ÍA’s last five matches have produced 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat, whereas Breidablik have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The visitors are efficient, averaging 1.75 goals away from home, but they have failed to score in 25% of such matches, compared with just 9% of the hosts’ home games ending without a goal. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as Breidablik have drawn as many as 42% of their away matches; however, the superior chance quality and current stability give ÍA a slight edge.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 64% of ÍA’s matches this season and as many as 75% of Breidablik’s, compared with the league average of 71%. In their last five matches, the hosts recorded BTTS in 100% of games, while the visitors did so in 80%; during that period, the two teams scored an average of 2.0 and 1.8 goals respectively, while both conceded 2.0 goals per game. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG: ÍA creates an average of 1.85 xG, Breidablik 1.64, while their opponents generate 1.81 and 2.04 xG against them respectively. The chances of keeping a clean sheet are limited, as the hosts have done so in only 27% of matches and Breidablik in 17%. The BTTS scenario is therefore clearly more likely than a match in which at least one team fails to score.

ÍA’s matches produce an average of 4.18 goals, as the team scores 2.27 and concedes 1.91, while Breidablik’s games average 3.50 goals. Both teams are also in clearly attacking form: ÍA recorded a 2:2 goals-for/goals-against average per match over their last 5 games, while Breidablik recorded 1.8:2.0. The potential for chances created also points to an open game, with ÍA averaging 1.85 xG compared to Breidablik’s 2.04 xG conceded, while the visitors create 1.64 xG against 1.81 xG allowed by the hosts. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the last five matches for each side, while across the competition, the 1.5-goal line was surpassed in 82% of ÍA’s matches and 75% of Breidablik’s. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the high projected total of 3.83 goals and the visitors’ poor clean-sheet record, achieved in only 17% of matches, clearly reduce the likelihood of a game with no more than one goal.

The home side have won 55% of their matches this season, while Breidablik have won only 25%, with average points per game of 1.73 and 1.17 respectively. ÍA hold the attacking edge, averaging 2.27 goals scored with an xG of 1.85, whereas the visitors concede 1.75 goals per match on average and allow opponents an xG of 2.04. The signal for a home lead at the break is supported by current form: ÍA were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Breidablik conceded an average of 1.4 goals before the interval during this period. After the break, ÍA increase the tempo further, scoring an average of 1.45 goals compared with Breidablik’s 0.75, and they win the second half in 55% of matches, versus just 25% for their opponents. The most likely scenario is therefore that the home side will take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle.