Ikorodu City vs Warri Wolves: match statistics
Ikorodu City vs Warri Wolves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ikorodu City played Warri Wolves in NPFL (Nigeria). The match was played on 29 March 2026. Final score: 4:3.
Current form
Ikorodu City: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Warri Wolves: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ikorodu City scores 0.94 and concedes 0.74 goals per match. Warri Wolves scores 0.90 and concedes 0.94. League average: 1.89 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ikorodu City 29%, Warri Wolves 39%. Over 2.5: Ikorodu City 19%, Warri Wolves 29%. League level: BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Warri Wolves has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.34. Ikorodu City: 7.2 shots per match, Warri Wolves: 5.1.
Match halves
Ikorodu City: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.48. Warri Wolves: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.58.
Goals by minute
Ikorodu City: 46-60 (6 goals). Warri Wolves: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
NPFL: 1.89 goals per match, BTTS 37%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ikorodu City show a clear home statistical advantage: 73% wins, only 0.2 GA per match and 80% matches without conceding, indicating a very solid defence. Home xG for 1.54 exceeds xG against (0.91) and 56% average possession suggests match control. Warri Wolves have weaker away metrics: only 27% away wins, 1.33 GA on average and high away xG against 2.18, with low offensive output 0.87 goals per match. Recent forms are similar, but home defensive strength and efficiency make Ikorodu favourites. I predict a home win with moderately high probability.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Home defensive edge preferred—seasonCSPercentage_home 63% and league CS 76% imply frequent clean sheets. Ikorodu has higher xG_for (1.69) than Warri (1.24) and more shots, but actual goal averages are low (0.94 vs 0.87), indicating finishing issues. Warri Wolves’ defence is weaker by xG (xg_against_avg_away 2.18) and higher season conceded (1.33), increasing Ikorodu’s chance to score. However, league trends (league_seasonAVG_overall 1.88) and low home season BTTS (31%) indicate reduced away scoring risk. Prefer 'no'—one side likely keeps a clean sheet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Model on available stats indicates high probability of clearing the 1.5 line. Ikorodu xG_for 1.69 and opponent xG_against 2.18 produce a high expected volume of scoring chances; both teams also generate sensible shot numbers (12.5 vs 8.08). Season Over2.5 rates are moderate, but adjusted xG and poor Warri Wolves defense (ga_season_away 29, xg_against_avg_away 2.18) push the chance for extra goals. BTTS is moderate and CS% favors hosts, but overall offensive potential leans to overs. Recommendation: Over 1.5 as the strongest and most confident signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Data suggest a high probability of a draw at Half-Time (Ikorodu has 69% HT draws; both teams have low average goals to 45' ~0.31–0.33). After the break the advantage lies with the hosts: better xG (1.69 vs 1.24), higher PPG and stronger defensive metrics against opponent xG, indicating greater chances for Ikorodu to score in the second half. The league and hosts feature high HT clean sheet rates and low scoring, limiting multi-goal combinations. Warri Wolves’ poor away form (high loss percentages and inferior defensive stats) raises the probability of a home win after Half-Time, hence HT=draw, FT=home (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ikorodu City | Warri Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Warri Wolves is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Ikorodu City · 1.2 pts / match - Warri Wolves
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ikorodu City is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.74 goals / match - Ikorodu City · 0.94 goals / match - Warri Wolves
Ikorodu City scores in 68% of matches (21 of 31 matches), while Warri Wolves keeps a clean sheet in 45% (14 of 31 matches).
Warri Wolves scores in 65% of matches (20 of 31 matches), while Ikorodu City keeps a clean sheet in 55% (17 of 31 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ikorodu City
Over / Under - Warri Wolves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ikorodu City is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.35 pts / match - Ikorodu City · 1 pts / match - Warri Wolves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ikorodu City - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Warri Wolves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ikorodu City
Warri Wolves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (NPFL).
Teams vs league
| Ikorodu City | Liga | Warri Wolves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.68 | 1.89 | • 1.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 37% | ▲ 39% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 19% | 28% | • 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 55% | 38% | ▲ 45% |
| Goal before half-time | • 61% | 60% | ▼ 55% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 48% | 61% | ▼ 55% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ikorodu City 1 - 0 - 0 Warri Wolves. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ikorodu City vs Warri Wolves?
The NPFL match finished Ikorodu City 4:3 Warri Wolves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ikorodu City vs Warri Wolves?
Ikorodu City score 0.94 goals per game on average and Warri Wolves 0.90. The NPFL average is 1.89 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 29% of Ikorodu City's matches and 39% of Warri Wolves's.
What form are Ikorodu City and Warri Wolves in?
Over the last 5 games Ikorodu City have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Warri Wolves 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ikorodu City vs Warri Wolves?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.