Ilirija vs Dravinja: match statistics

Dravinja come into this match in considerably better form: they have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last five games, collecting 13 points in total, while Ilirija have suffered 4 defeats and recorded just 1 win. The visitors scored 7 goals during this period, averaging 1.4 per match, while conceding only 3. Ilirija have scored just 3 goals in their last five outings, or 0.6 per game, and have conceded 8. Dravinja’s goal difference stands at +4, compared with -5 for the hosts, clearly highlighting the visitors’ greater balance in both attack and defence. The gap in the league table is small, with Dravinja sixth and Ilirija seventh, but the current trend strongly points towards an away win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score. Ilirija have scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while Dravinja have conceded only 3 goals during that period, also 0.6 per match. The hosts failed to score in 60% of their last five appearances, with a BTTS rate of just 40%, whereas Dravinja recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches. Ilirija’s defence was clearly more vulnerable, conceding 8 goals in 5 games, which supports a goal for the in-form visitors, who won 4 of those 5 matches and averaged 1.4 goals scored. At the same time, Ilirija’s xG of 1.25 gives them a reasonable chance of scoring, but the combination of their poor finishing and Dravinja’s solid defence makes the scenario in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

Ilirija have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, while Dravinja have conceded just 3 goals during this period, also averaging 0.6. The visitors are in better offensive form, averaging 1.4 goals scored, but their matches over the last five rounds produced only 2.0 goals on average, compared with 2.2 in Ilirija's games. The 2.5 line was exceeded in only 40% of the last five matches for both teams, limiting the chances of an open, high-scoring game. Although the average xG figures stand at 1.25 for Ilirija and 1.36 for Dravinja, the visitors' highly solid defense and the hosts' poor finishing point towards a match with no more than three goals. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

Dravinja are in significantly better form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning four and losing none, while Ilirija have suffered four defeats and earned just three points. Before half-time, the hosts conceded an average of 1.2 goals, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors; combined with Ilirija losing at the break in 60% of their matches, this strongly supports an early lead for the away side. Dravinja were ahead at half-time in 40% of their recent matches and never conceded more than one goal before the break, while both teams averaged just 0.4 goals scored in this period. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage remains evident, as they score an average of 1.0 goals compared with Ilirija’s 0.2, and the second half produced at least one goal in 80% of their matches. The most likely scenario is therefore a Dravinja lead at half-time followed by a victory maintained through to the end of the match.