Ilirija vs Nafta: match statistics
Ilirija vs Nafta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ilirija played Nafta in 2. SNL (Slovenia). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Ilirija: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Nafta: 5-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ilirija scores 1.40 and concedes 1.76 goals per match. Nafta scores 2.32 and concedes 0.76. League average: 2.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ilirija 76%, Nafta 60%. Over 2.5: Ilirija 64%, Nafta 48%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Ilirija has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.62. Ilirija: 11.8 shots per match, Nafta: 12.4.
Match halves
Ilirija: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 0.76. Nafta: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.32.
Goals by minute
Ilirija: 16-30 (8 goals). Nafta: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. SNL: 2.81 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nafta is the clear favorite for this fixture: they sit 1st in the table with a season record of 20 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses, while Ilirija are 11th with 5 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses. The visitors have scored 58 goals this season and 13 in the last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 goals on the road, whereas Ilirija have 35 goals this season and 9 in the last 5, with a home scoring average of 1.33 goals per game. Defensively Nafta is superior: they concede 0.67 goals on average away and keep 58% clean sheets on the road, while Ilirija concede 1.83 goals at home and have a 17% clean sheet rate. Although Ilirija’s home xG is 1.73 versus Nafta’s 1.48 away, Nafta are more efficient in chance conversion (shot conversion 18% vs 11%) and have had no goalless away matches (0%), translating into better opportunity conversion. Considering Nafta’s 5 wins in their last 5 matches (average 3 points per game) compared to Ilirija’s recent form of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (average 1.4 points), I forecast a victory for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes at 68%: Ilirija at home has BTTS in 77% of season games and 80% in the last 5, scoring an average 2.62 goals per home match (last 5: 1.8) and registering 5.69 shots on target. Nafta away has 58% clean sheets and a season average of 0.67 goals conceded, but they themselves score 2.0 goals away and have netted 13 goals in the last 5 (2.6 avg), so they can respond. xG comparison shows Ilirija home xG 1.73, while Nafta in the last 5 has xG_for 1.42 and xG_against 1.04, indicating a real ability for both teams to create chances. Additionally, 69% of Ilirija matches finish over 2.5 goals, and the over 2.5 + BTTS combination occurs in 62% of their games, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Although Nafta’s season BTTS rate is 42% and their defensive form is strong, Ilirija’s home statistical edge and Nafta’s attacking form lead me to choose Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal is Over 1.5: both teams have Over 1.5 in 92% of their matches, while the league average is 2.81 goals per match. I project 1.65 goals for the home side (Ilirija: goals scored 2.62 and Nafta goals conceded 0.67 → (2.62+0.67)/2=1.65) and 1.43 for the away side (Nafta: 2.00 and 0.85 → (2.00+0.85)/2=1.43), totaling 3.08 goals. xG confirms high potential: Ilirija xG_for 1.73 vs Nafta xG_against 1.11 gives a base of 1.42, Nafta xG_for 1.48 vs Ilirija xG_against 1.38 gives 1.43, sum ≈2.85; high finishing rates (conversion 19% and 18%) and shot counts (13.54 vs 11.08) justify raising the forecast to 3.08. Based on this I estimate probabilities of Over 1.5 at 88%, Over 2.5 at 60% and Over 3.5 at 36% (Under respectively 12%, 40%, 64%). I recommend backing the over at 1.5 as the strongest signal — the high seasonal frequency of 92% and a 3.08 goal projection provide the greatest edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Nafta led at the break in 8 matches, i.e. in 67% of cases, and Nafta’s average first-half goals are 1.08 versus Ilirija’s 0.92, giving the visitors the halftime lead. However, the key signal is Ilirija’s post-break form: the home side scores on average 1.69 goals in the second half and wins that half in 69% of matches while conceding only 0.54 goals on average after the break. Additionally, Ilirija has a higher seasonal home goals average of 2.62 compared to Nafta’s 2.00 and a high rate of matches with both teams scoring (BTTS 77% for the hosts vs 42% for the visitors), which increases the likelihood of a comeback. On the other hand, Nafta is in excellent form (5 wins in their last 5 matches, 100% in the last 5), so the 2/2 outcome is also plausible. Summing the above figures, the strongest signal is the 2/1 scenario — Nafta leads at half-time, and Ilirija stages a turnaround after the break to win the match.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ilirija | Nafta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 41% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nafta is 114% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Ilirija · 3 pts / match - Nafta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nafta is 66% better for: goals scored per match.
1.4 goals / match - Ilirija · 2.32 goals / match - Nafta
Nafta is 132% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.76 goals / match - Ilirija · 0.76 goals / match - Nafta
Ilirija scores in 88% of matches (22 of 25 matches), while Nafta keeps a clean sheet in 40% (10 of 25 matches).
Nafta scores in 100% of matches (25 of 25 matches), while Ilirija keeps a clean sheet in 16% (4 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ilirija
Over / Under - Nafta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nafta is 83% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.16 pts / match - Ilirija · 2.12 pts / match - Nafta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ilirija - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nafta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 80%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +9 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (8 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ilirija
Nafta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. SNL).
Teams vs league
| Ilirija | Liga | Nafta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.16 | 2.81 | ▲ 3.08 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 50% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 64% | 54% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 29% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 84% | 74% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 80% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ilirija 0 - 0 - 1 Nafta. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ilirija vs Nafta?
The 2. SNL match finished Ilirija 0:2 Nafta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ilirija vs Nafta?
Ilirija score 1.40 goals per game on average and Nafta 2.32. The 2. SNL average is 2.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 76% of Ilirija's matches and 60% of Nafta's.
What form are Ilirija and Nafta in?
Over the last 5 games Ilirija have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Nafta 5-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ilirija vs Nafta?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.