Ilirija vs NK Primorje: match statistics

Ilirija sit 2nd, having won 3 of their 4 matches this season and secured 4 victories in their last five games, scoring as many as 17 goals. At home, the hosts have a perfect winning record, have yet to concede a goal, and create significantly more danger: averaging 17.5 shots and 5.5 shots on target per match, compared with Primorje’s 7 shots and 3 shots on target away from home. The quality of chances also clearly favors Ilirija, whose average xG stands at 1.96, while the visitors manage just 0.98 xG. NK Primorje have lost both away matches, conceding an average of 3 goals and scoring only 0.5 per game, while also failing to score in 50% of their away fixtures. Given this defensive disparity and the difference in attacking consistency, a home win is the most likely outcome.

Ilirija are clear offensive favourites: they average 2.0 goals at home, while NK Primorje concede as many as 3.0 goals per away match. However, the key argument against BTTS - Yes is the visitors’ poor finishing, as they score only 0.5 goals away from home, failed to score in 50% of such matches, and have an xG of just 0.98. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, while their last five games produced an average of just 1.2 goals conceded, with an xG against them of 1.11. Although Ilirija have scored 3.4 goals per match in their last five games and Primorje have not kept a single clean sheet away from home, a result featuring one or more goals for the hosts and no goals for the visitors is more likely. Both teams’ seasonal BTTS rate stands at 50%, but the league records BTTS in only 42% of matches, further supporting the BTTS - No outcome, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

Ilirija are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 3.4 goals over their last 5 matches, while their average xG stood at 2.07. NK Primorje concede an average of 3.0 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, significantly increasing the hosts’ potential to score at least twice. The visitors score just 0.5 goals per game across the season, but Ilirija allow opponents an xG of 1.08, making a single Primorje goal a realistic scenario. In the teams’ last five matches, the 2.5-goal line was covered in 80% and 60% of cases, respectively, but the safest edge is on Over 1.5 goals.

Ilirija are showing significantly stronger form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Primorje have lost 3 of their last 5. The hosts were leading at the break in 80% of their recent games and averaged 1.8 goals before half-time, whereas the visitors were behind at that stage in 60% of their matches, scoring just 0.4 goals. Ilirija’s advantage is also evident over the full match, with the team averaging 3.4 goals across their last five fixtures compared with Primorje’s 1.0. During this period, the visitors’ defence conceded 1.8 goals per game, while their season-long away record shows an average of 0.5 goals scored and as many as 3.0 conceded. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT 1/1, with Ilirija taking the lead before half-time and holding it until the final whistle.