Ilves vs Gnistan: match statistics
Ilves vs Gnistan: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ilves played Gnistan in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 23 May 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Ilves: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Gnistan: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ilves scores 1.38 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. Gnistan scores 1.43 and concedes 1.57. League average: 2.38 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ilves 88%, Gnistan 43%. Over 2.5: Ilves 75%, Gnistan 43%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 40%.
xG, shots and style
Ilves has higher xG: 1.14 vs 1.04. Ilves: 9.3 shots per match, Gnistan: 8.7.
Match halves
Ilves: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.63. Gnistan: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Ilves: 16-30 (4 goals). Gnistan: 61-75 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.38 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 40%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 3.75, BTTS 75%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ilves holds a slight edge due to offensive efficiency at home: at home they average 1.0 goal per game, 8.0 shots with 3.0 on target and a 13% conversion rate, while Gnistan away scores 0.67 goals, registers 7.67 shots with 2.67 on target and has a 9% conversion. Ilves has not recorded a goalless home game (percentage of matches without scoring 0%), and both teams have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches, but Ilves concedes on average 2.0 goals at home versus Gnistan’s 1.0 away (16 vs 11 goals conceded this season), giving the visitors a defensive advantage. Looking at quality of chances, Ilves generates more xG at home (xG 1.10) than Gnistan away (xG 0.91), whereas Ilves allows 1.26 xG against at home and Gnistan records 1.77 xG against on the road — this indicates Gnistan defends more effectively than xG suggests, while Ilves concedes more goals than xG would imply. Forms are similar (points per game in last 5: 1.6 for both; both teams have 2 wins in the last 5), but key strengths are Ilves: better finishing and no goalless home games, and Gnistan: defensive stability away and a high share of draws on the road (67%). As a result I predict a home win (1) with probability 45%, a draw 35% and an away win 20% — I expect a tight match with a slight Ilves advantage due to finishing, more shots on target and higher home xG.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Ilves averages 2.0 goals scored at home this season, while Gnistan concedes 1.0 goals away, increasing the likelihood that the home side will find the net; season totals for Ilves are 11 scored and 16 conceded. However, Gnistan averages 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches (9 goals in 5), while Ilves concedes 1.2 on average in the last 5 (6 conceded), so the visitors also have a realistic chance to score. xG data shows Ilves with xG_for 1.14 at home, and opponents against Gnistan generate xG 1.77; at the same time Ilves allows xG 1.45 — both teams concede above 1.3 xG, which favors goal-scoring situations. Additionally, Ilves averages 9.5 shots per match with a 21% conversion rate, while Gnistan averages 7.67 shots with a 9% conversion, suggesting a qualitative advantage for the hosts but not ruling out a visitor goal. Considering Gnistan’s seasonal BTTS away rate of 67% versus Ilves’s low home BTTS of 25% and Gnistan’s 0% clean sheet expected on the road, I assess the BTTS - Yes scenario as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Ilves scores an average of 2.0 goals at home and has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this campaign, while Gnistan averages 0.67 goals away and exceeds 1.5 goals in 67% of away fixtures. On xG terms Ilves has 1.14 xG per match, Gnistan 0.91 xG; taking the average of the home xG and the opponent xG against produces expected goals of 1.46 for Ilves and 1.18 for Gnistan, totaling 2.64, which is above the league average of 2.35. Ilves attempts more shots (9.5 vs 7.67) and is significantly more efficient (conversion 21% vs 9%), increasing the likelihood of home goals and supporting over 1.5 and partially over 2.5. Season stats also show 75% of Ilves home matches over 2.5 goals versus 0% for Gnistan away, so over 2.5 is possible but not dominant. Overall the strongest signal is over 1.5 (recommendation: Over 1.5) with a low probability of over 3.5 (~20%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ilves has a clear offensive advantage: they average 9.5 shots per game with 3.75 on target and a 21% conversion rate, while Gnistan records 7.67 shots with 2.67 on target and only 9% conversion. At half-time Ilves averages 0.75 goals versus Gnistan’s 0.0, and combined with the fact that Ilves led at the break in 50% of home matches (while Gnistan led at the break in 0% of away matches), this strongly supports the home side leading after the first 45 minutes. Seasonally Ilves scores 2.0 goals per home game compared to Gnistan’s 0.67 and also posts a higher xG (1.14 vs 0.91), so Ilves’ advantage should persist through full-time and produce the win. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the 1/1 (HT/FT) outcome at 41%, the next strongest signal is X/1 at 17%, and the combined chances of scenarios in which Gnistan lead at the break are only about 10%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ilves | Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gnistan is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Ilves · 1.6 pts / match - Gnistan
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Gnistan is 27% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - Ilves · 1.57 goals / match - Gnistan
Ilves scores in 100% of matches (8 of 8 matches), while Gnistan keeps a clean sheet in 29% (2 of 7 matches).
Gnistan scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ilves
Over / Under - Gnistan
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Ilves · 1.14 pts / match - Gnistan
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 13%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Gnistan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ilves
Gnistan
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Ilves | Liga | Gnistan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.38 | 2.38 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 88% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 75% | 40% | ▲ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 27% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 79% | ▼ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 73% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Ilves 3 - 1 - 0 Gnistan. Average goals 3.75, both teams scored in 75% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ilves vs Gnistan?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Ilves 2:0 Gnistan. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Gnistan?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Ilves won 3, Gnistan won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 75% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ilves vs Gnistan?
Ilves score 1.38 goals per game on average and Gnistan 1.43. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.38 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of games. Both teams score in 88% of Ilves's matches and 43% of Gnistan's.
What form are Ilves and Gnistan in?
Over the last 5 games Ilves have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Gnistan 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ilves vs Gnistan?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ilves vs Gnistan: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.