Ilves vs KuPS: match statistics

Ilves enters this match in clearly better form: in the last 5 games the hosts scored 10 goals and have a record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (form WWWDL), while KuPS scored only 3 goals and lost all 5 most recent matches (LLLLL). Ilves has scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) and conceded 7 (1.4 per game), whereas KuPS scored 3 (0.6 per game) and conceded 13 (2.6 per game), demonstrating the hosts' superiority in both attack and defense. On average Ilves earns 2.0 points per game over the last 5 matches, while KuPS has 0 points, which translates into greater efficiency and consistency for the hosts. Additionally, Ilves sits 3rd in the table compared to KuPS in 6th, so based on form and statistics I predict a home win.

Ilves scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per match) and has an xG of 1.44 over that period, indicating strong offensive efficiency from the home side. KuPS scored only 3 goals in their last 5 matches (0.6 per match) with an xG of 0.65, so the visitors’ attack looks weak. Conversely, KuPS conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match (13 conceded in 5), while Ilves conceded 1.4 (7 in 5), and xG against KuPS is 2.25 versus xG against Ilves 1.29, which increases the likelihood of goals for both teams. Additionally, Ilves has produced BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, whereas KuPS only in 20%, and the home form 'wwwdl' versus the visitors' 'lllll' suggests Ilves have the edge in creating chances. Therefore I favor the Both Teams To Score scenario and estimate BTTS at about 65% versus 35% for No Goal.

Ilves has averaged 2.0 goals scored in the last 5 matches with xG 1.44, while KuPS averages 0.6 goals scored per match and concedes 2.6 goals on average in that period (xG against 2.25). Combining these values yields projected xG ~1.85 for Ilves (average of 1.44 and 2.25) and ~0.97 for KuPS (average of 0.65 and 1.29), totaling ~2.82 goals. Ilves scored 10 and conceded 7 in the last 5 games, whereas KuPS scored 3 and conceded 13, confirming the home side's offensive advantage and the opponents' defensive weakness. Accordingly, Over 1.5 is rated as the strongest signal (~90%), Over 2.5 has a clear edge (~72%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (~35%). Recommendation: play Over 1.5 as the safest option given the combination of Ilves scoring 2.0 goals and KuPS conceding 2.6 goals and the projected total xG ~2.82.

Ilves has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they averaged 2.0 goals per game and won 3 of 5 matches (60%), whereas KuPS average 0.6 goals and have lost all last 5 matches (100% defeats). In first halves Ilves score on average 1.4 goals and collect an average of 1.8 points by half-time, while KuPS have 0.0 goals and only 0.2 points at the break, indicating a host advantage already at half-time. Ilves led at the break in 40% of cases (2 of 5) and were level at the break in 60% (3 of 5), whereas KuPS never led at the break (0%) and were losing at half-time in 80% of matches (4 of 5). Given Ilves’ more frequent half-time draws (60%) and the fact that the hosts finish matches victorious in 60% of cases, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time followed by an Ilves win at full-time (X/1). Additionally, Ilves had 100% of matches with at least one goal by half-time in the last 5 (5 of 5), while KuPS have a zero first-half goal average, which reinforces the prediction of a second-half turnaround in favor of the hosts.