Ilves vs Mariehamn: match statistics

Ilves are showing clearly stronger form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Mariehamn have failed to win any of their last 5 games and scored just 3 goals in that run. At home, the hosts win 63% of their matches, average 1.75 goals and keep a clean sheet in 63% of appearances. Away from home, Mariehamn lose as many as 89% of their matches, score just 0.44 goals per game and fail to find the net in 67% of away fixtures. The difference in the quality of chances created is reflected in the xG figures: Ilves have 1.29 at home, while the visitors record just 0.96 away, while Mariehamn simultaneously allow 2.01 xG. The visitors’ defence concedes an average of 2.44 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets, strongly backing an Ilves victory.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as both teams have a low seasonal rate of matches with goals scored by both sides: 44% for Ilves and just 33% for Mariehamn, compared with the league average of 49%. Mariehamn particularly limits the likelihood of a Goal/Goal scenario: they average 0.44 goals per match, failed to score in 67% of their games, and have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, or 0.6 per game. Ilves are in better defensive form, conceding 4 goals in their last five appearances (0.8 per match), with an xG against of 1.27, which further reduces the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts should nevertheless have opportunities to find the net, as their recent xG stands at 1.47, while Mariehamn have allowed opponents an xG of 2.02 and conceded an average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches. Although neither team has kept a clean sheet consistently this season, Mariehamn’s poor finishing makes the most likely outcome one in which at least one side fails to score.

The Under 3.5 goals line is strongly supported by the season data, as the final score stayed below four goals in 78% of both teams’ matches. Ilves average just 0.56 goals at home, while Mariehamn average 0.44 away from home, with very low shot-conversion rates of 6% and 5%, respectively. However, the hosts are in better form, scoring 1.2 goals per match across their last five games, while the visitors conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game during this period, which raises the projection for Ilves. At the same time, Mariehamn have scored only 3 goals in their last five matches, while Ilves have conceded just 4, so the visitors’ contribution should remain limited. The total projection of 2.25 goals suggests a scoreline closer to 2:0 or 2:1 than a scenario with at least four goals.

Ilves are clearly superior in terms of current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Mariehamn have failed to win any of their matches and have allowed opponents to score 2.8 goals per game. The hosts have made particular progress in their starts, leading at the break in 40% of their last five matches, drawing at half-time in 60%, and never going into the interval behind. Mariehamn were trailing at half-time in 80% of their recent outings, scored just 0.2 goals per game before the break, and have not scored a single first-half goal throughout the season. Ilves’ advantage should persist after the interval, as the visitors have conceded an average of 1.6 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, with a record of five second-half defeats. The HT/FT scenario of Ilves leading at half-time and securing the final victory therefore has the strongest support based on the teams’ current form.