Ilves vs TPS: match statistics
Ilves vs TPS: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ilves played TPS in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 13 June 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Ilves: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. TPS: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ilves scores 1.30 and concedes 2.10 goals per match. TPS scores 1.22 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ilves 70%, TPS 56%. Over 2.5: Ilves 70%, TPS 33%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
TPS has higher xG: 1.24 vs 1.12. Ilves: 9.1 shots per match, TPS: 9.6.
Match halves
Ilves: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.60. TPS: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Ilves: 16-30 (4 goals). TPS: 76-90+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ilves appears to be the favorite: at home they score on average 1.25 goals per match and have a 50% home win rate, while TPS averages 1.00 goal away and has not recorded an away win yet (0%). In the last 5 matches Ilves scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and won 3 of 5, whereas TPS scored 5 goals (1.0 per game) and averages 1.2 points per match, indicating a home advantage in form and efficiency. Both teams concede on average 1.5 goals per match, but Ilves has an xG against at home of 1.25 versus TPS’s away xG against of 1.35, and Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home matches compared to 0% for TPS away. TPS creates more chances (on average 11 shots and 3.5 on target away) and has xG for 1.36, yet their shot conversion is only 9%, while Ilves averages 8 shots and 3 on target with a higher conversion of 16%, translating into better chance conversion. Considering Ilves’s superior conversion (16%), the absence of away clean sheets for TPS (0%), and Ilves’s 9 goals in the last 5 matches versus TPS’s 5, I forecast a home win; estimated probabilities: Ilves 60%, draw 25%, TPS 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal statistics favor No BTTS: Ilves has 60% clean sheets and concedes on average 0.4 goals per game, with BTTS occurring in only 40% of their matches. TPS, on the other hand, shows 75% of season matches with both teams scoring, but in the last 5 games TPS registered only 20% BTTS and averages 1.0 goals scored, while across the season they have 25% of matches in which they failed to score. Ilves in the last 5 matches averages 1.8 goals scored and concedes 2.0 (total 9 scored and 10 conceded), indicating short-term defensive instability, yet Ilves’ season conversion rate is 17% on 8.4 shots per game, which translates to a seasonal average of 1.4 goals. Numerically compared: Ilves concedes only 0.4 goals seasonally with 60% clean sheets, while TPS gives mixed signals (75% season BTTS vs 20% BTTS in last 5); therefore the strongest and most consistent signal points to Both Teams To Score = No (No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model projects approximately 2.45 total goals: Ilves 1.15 (xG 1.13) and TPS 1.30 (xG 1.36), which aligns with seasonal scoring averages of 1.4 for Ilves and 1.0 for TPS. Based on this, I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 goals at about 70% — consistent with historical over1.5 rates: Ilves 60% and TPS 75%, and the league average goals 2.41. The 2.5 line is balanced: the model gives Over 2.5 ~44% vs Under 2.5 ~56%, matching the fact that Ilves exceeds 2.5 goals at home only 20% of the time, while TPS goes over 2.5 in 50% of away matches. The strongest signal is Under 3.5, since seasonally Ilves has 0% of home games >3.5 and TPS 25%, and a Poisson for a 2.45 total indicates ~23% chance of 4+ goals (Over 3.5) — therefore Under 3.5 ~77%. Additionally, Ilves keeps clean sheets in 60% of home games and has a high shot efficiency of 17%, which limits the risk of a sudden goal surge, whereas TPS has 0% away clean sheets, increasing the likelihood of individual goals but not necessarily four or more.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Ilves are clear favorites: at home they have won 80% of matches while TPS have no away wins (winPercentage_home = 80%, winPercentage_away = 0%). At half-time Ilves led in 40% of matches and were drawing in 60% (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 40%, drawingAtHTPercentage_home = 60%), and the hosts did not concede before the break (concededAVGHT_home = 0.0, seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 100%), indicating frequent 0-0 or minimal home leads at the break. Over 90 minutes Ilves score on average 1.4 goals at home and concede 0.4, while TPS concede on average 1.5 goals per away match (seasonScoredAVG_home = 1.4, seasonConcededAVG_home = 0.4, seasonConcededAVG_away = 1.5), and Ilves’ shot conversion is 17% versus TPS’s 9%, which favors breaking the deadlock after half-time. Given that halves finish level in 60% of cases and the hosts win 80% of matches, the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and an Ilves victory after 90 minutes (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ilves | TPS | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ilves is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - Ilves · 1.22 goals / match - TPS
TPS is 136% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.1 goals / match - Ilves · 0.89 goals / match - TPS
Ilves scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while TPS keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
TPS scores in 89% of matches (8 of 9 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ilves
Over / Under - TPS
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 15% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.4 pts / match - Ilves · 1.22 pts / match - TPS
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 20%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
TPS - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ilves
TPS
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| Ilves | Liga | TPS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.40 | 2.41 | ▼ 2.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 50% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 41% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 76% | ▼ 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 74% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ilves vs TPS?
The Veikkausliiga match finished Ilves 1:0 TPS. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ilves vs TPS?
Ilves score 1.30 goals per game on average and TPS 1.22. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 70% of Ilves's matches and 56% of TPS's.
What form are Ilves and TPS in?
Over the last 5 games Ilves have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and TPS 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ilves vs TPS?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ilves vs TPS: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.