Imabari vs Ventforet Kofu: match statistics

Imabari hold a slight edge in the table, sitting 19th ahead of 20th-placed Ventforet Kofu, and have taken 7 points from their last five matches compared with the visitors’ 4. At home, the hosts score an average of 1.4 goals per match, while Kofu manage just 0.67 goals away from home and fail to score in 50% of their away games. Imabari also create slightly better chances, with a home xG of 1.65 compared with Kofu’s away xG of 1.45. Both defences are prone to errors, but the visitors concede an average of 2.83 goals away from home, while the hosts concede 2.2 at home. Imabari’s advantage is not overwhelming, having lost 60% of their home matches, but Kofu’s lower scoring output and away goal difference of -13 support a home win.

BTTS landed in 57% of Imabari’s matches and 50% of Ventforet Kofu’s, rising to 80% and 60% respectively across their last 5 games, which offers slight support for both teams to score. Neither side kept a clean sheet in the matches analysed; Kofu also concede an average of 2.83 goals away from home, increasing the hosts’ chances of finding the net. The visitors score just 0.67 goals per away game and failed to score in 50% of those matches, making their attacking output the main risk to this market. However, their average xG is 1.45, while Imabari concede 1.43 goals per home game, so a Kofu goal remains a realistic possibility. The stronger BTTS indicators in the teams’ respective statistics justify backing BTTS - Yes, although the visitors’ low scoring rate limits confidence in the pick.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals: the Over 1.5 line has been cleared in 71% of Imabari’s matches and 100% of Ventforet Kofu’s. Their last five games have averaged 3.4 and 3.2 goals respectively, with each team going Over 2.5 in 80% of those matches. Imabari have recently averaged 1.6 goals scored, while Ventforet have conceded 2.4, strengthening the case for goals from the home side. On the other hand, the visitors average only 0.67 goals scored per game this season, making Over 2.5 a less certain pick despite the high-scoring results in recent matches. A forecast of 2.95 goals gives the clearest betting edge on Over 1.5, assessed at 80%.

The strongest signal is Imabari leading at the break: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Ventforet Kofu trailed at half-time in 5 of their 6 away games. In their last 5 matches, Imabari averaged 1.0 first-half goals, while Kofu conceded an average of 1.2 in that period. The hosts’ recent scoring advantage also supports them holding on to their lead: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 1.6 goals per game, compared with 0.8 for the visitors, who also conceded 2.4 per game. The risk to the 1/1 pick is that Imabari have recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals after the break; however, Kofu’s frequent concessions and weaker scoring record favour the hosts leading at half-time and at full-time.