IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnički Kragujevac: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd shows clearer form: in the last 5 matches they collected 11 points (3 wins and 2 draws), while Radnički Kragujevac has 7 points (1 win and 4 draws). Both teams have 39 goals this season, but at home IMT averages 1.12 goals per game versus Radnički’s 1.00 on the road; average xG is 1.68 for the hosts and 1.60 for the visitors. Defensively the hosts perform better at their ground — they concede 1.06 goals at home on average and keep a clean sheet in 53% of matches, while the visitors concede 1.31 away and have 38% clean sheets. Additionally IMT fail to score in only 12% of home matches, whereas Radnički fail to score in 38% of their away outings; shot situations are similar (4.59 vs 4.44 shots on target and ~13.9 shots overall), but the hosts’ conversion rate is higher (8% vs 7%). Based on this I project a home win probability of about 60% for IMT, 25% for a draw and 15% for a Radnički win.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 50% (IMT 50%, Radnički 50%), and league-wide BTTS occurs in 53% of matches, providing a moderate baseline for expecting both teams to score. However, in the last 5 matches the BTTS rate has fallen to 40% for both sides, indicating recent form favors matches finishing without Goal/Goal. IMT has a slightly higher attacking xG of 1.69 versus Radnički 1.60, but is defensively stronger over the last 5: average xG against IMT is 0.72 versus 1.22 for Radnički, and IMT concedes on average 0.4 goals per match versus 0.6 for Radnički. Additionally, IMT scored 7 and conceded 2 in the last 5 matches, while Radnički have a 7 scored / 3 conceded record, which together points to a lower frequency of BTTS than seasonal stats suggest. Considering the drop of BTTS to 40% in the last 5 and IMT’s improved defense, I assign higher probability to No Goal at 60% versus 40% for BTTS - Yes.

I calculated expected goals as the average of the home team’s offensive xG and the opponent’s defensive xG: home xG_for 1.69 vs away xG_against 1.42 gives ~1.56 for IMT, and away xG_for 1.60 vs home xG_against 1.34 gives ~1.47 for Radnički, total ≈3.03. A Poisson model with λ=3.03 yields P(>1.5) ≈80%, P(>2.5) ≈58% and P(>3.5) ≈36%, which aligns with seasonal tendencies (IMT over 1.5 in 72% of matches, Radnički in 63%). In the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals each (1.4 per match) — IMT conceded 2 goals in those 5 matches (0.4 avg), Radnički conceded 3 (0.6) — this supports an active, goal-prone game. Additionally, average shots 13.78 vs 13.94 and shots on target 4.39 vs 4.44 with conversion rates 9% (home) and 7% (away) confirm a realistic chance of multiple goals. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 is plausible (≈58%) as a secondary pick, while Over 3.5 is less certain (~36%).

IMT has a clear advantage at the break: the hosts led at half-time in 50% of matches (9 times), while Radnički only in 31% (5 times). IMT scores on average 0.72 goals by half-time and concedes 0.33, versus the visitors’ 0.56 scored and 0.56 conceded; additionally the hosts’ xG is 1.69 compared to the visitors’ 1.60 and shot conversion 9% vs 7%. Over full-time the hosts win 33% of matches with 44% draws, so an IMT lead at the break (50%) statistically converts to a win frequently — estimated conversion is about 66% (33% wins / 50% HT leads). The risk of a turnaround is real, however, since the hosts concede on average 0.72 goals in the second half and 83% of their matches see a goal after the break, providing some support for draws and turnarounds. In light of these figures the strongest scenario is 1/1 (IMT leads HT and wins FT), with 1/X and X/X as moderate-probability alternatives.