IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnički Niš: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd sit 2nd, while Radnički Niš are only 11th, and the hosts have won 3 of their 4 league matches so far. At home, IMT have a perfect record, averaging 4 goals per game and remaining unbeaten defensively, with a clear xG advantage of 3.04 to just 0.13 against. Radnički average only 1 goal scored and 1 conceded away from home, while their shot conversion rate stands at 6%, compared with 16% for IMT. The visitors are capable of creating chances, as reflected by their away xG of 2.22, but the hosts average 25 shots and 9 shots on target per match—well above Radnički’s 17.5 and 7, respectively. The teams’ recent form is similar, but IMT’s dominance at home and significantly tighter defence point towards a home win.

The “No” outcome is slightly more likely, primarily due to IMT Novi Beograd’s lack of attacking efficiency so far: the hosts have yet to score, and their BTTS rate stands at 0%. Radnički Niš have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while the league records BTTS in only 40% of games, strengthening the scenario in which one side fails to score. At the same time, IMT’s recent form is clearly better, as the team averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per match across five appearances, meaning the risk of a home goal is not negligible. The visitors do create more quality chances, with an xG of 2.22 and 7 shots on target per match compared with IMT’s 1.75 xG and 3 shots on target, but this does not guarantee goals from both teams.

IMT Novi Beograd’s last five matches produced an average of 1.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded, indicating a significantly stronger defensive performance from the hosts. Over the same period, Radnički Niš averaged 1.2 goals scored, while IMT allowed opponents an xG of only 1.27. However, both sides still possess enough attacking potential to produce around 2.50 goals, as their average xG over the last five matches stands at 1.92 for IMT and 1.86 for Radnički. This makes the 2.5 line highly balanced, supported by results above this threshold in 40% of IMT’s recent matches and 60% of Radnički’s. The strongest signal points to Under 3.5: neither team recorded a match above 3.5 goals in the available league data, and the projected scoreline sits clearly below this line.

The strongest scenario is for IMT Novi Beograd to lead at the break and hold on to the win, as the hosts led at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Radnički Niš have not been ahead at half-time in any of theirs. During this period, IMT averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per match, compared with 1.2 goals scored and conceded by the Niš side. The first-half difference is clear: the hosts conceded an average of 0.2 goals before the break, while the visitors conceded 0.8, with Radnički scoring just 0.2 goals during this phase. IMT also have higher average xG in the current data, at 1.75 compared with the visitors’ 2.22, although Radnički’s advantage in chance creation is weakened by their poorer recent form and a 40% defeat rate across their last five matches. After the break, both teams have recently averaged 1.0 goal scored, so the most realistic outcome is for IMT to control their earlier lead rather than for the visitors to produce a turnaround.