IMT Novi Beograd vs Zemun: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd are the favorites: they sit 3rd in the table versus Zemun’s 9th and remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws), scoring 3 and conceding only 1. Zemun have scored 8 goals in their last 5 games but have also conceded 8, indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities. The points rate confirms the hosts’ edge — IMT average 1.8 points per game over the last 5 matches, Zemun 1.4, with the visitors suffering 2 defeats in that period while the hosts have 0. Season-long metrics also favor the home side: IMT have 1 scored and 0 conceded this season, while Zemun have 2 scored and 2 conceded. Based on this I assess the probability of a home win at approximately 60%, a draw 25% and an away win 15%.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows the home team averaged 0.6 goals scored and 0.2 goals conceded with BTTS at 20%, while the away team averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded with BTTS 60%. Seasonal data are contradictory (home season BTTS 100% vs away 0%), but recent indicators from the last 5 matches carry greater weight and show the home side often keeps a clean sheet. Home xG over the last 5 matches is 1.37 with xG against 1.3, meaning they create chances but actually convert only 0.6 goals per game, which points to inefficiency rather than an open goal exchange. The visitors scored 8 goals in the last 5 (avg 1.6) and also conceded 8 (avg 1.6), so they can find the net, but the risk that the home team will remain without conceding is significant. Consequently, I assign a higher probability to the “No” scenario — 60% vs 40% for “BTTS - Yes”, because the most recent form and goal statistics favor no BTTS.

Data indicate a goals game: league average is 2.86 goals, and IMT at home has seasonally 100% of matches over 1.5 and 100% over 2.5, suggesting an open style. The hosts have offensive xG 1.38 versus xG against 2.8, meaning they both create and concede many chances (1.38 vs 2.8). In the last 5 matches IMT scored 3 goals total (0.6 avg) and conceded 1 (0.2), while Zemun in their last 5 have 8 scored and 8 conceded (1.6 avg scored and 1.6 avg conceded) and 80% of matches with over 2.5 goals. Based on this I estimate about 1.42 expected goals for the hosts and 1.20 for the visitors (total 2.62), therefore the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (recommended), with a high probability of Over 1.5 (~88%) and a moderate probability of Over 2.5 (~68%).

Data analysis shows the home side often holds a lead at the break: in the last 5 matches IMT led at Half-Time in 60% of games and averaged 0.6 goals by Half-Time versus 0.4 for their opponents, giving them an advantage in the first 45 minutes. However, after the break the visitors Zemun dominate — their second-half goal average is 2.0, they scored at least once after Half-Time in 100% of the last 5 matches, and they won the second half in 60% of games. The hosts, by contrast, have only 20% of matches with a post-break goal and 0% second-half wins in those five games, so they are vulnerable to a turnaround by the opposition. As a result the strongest scenario is IMT leading at Half-Time with Zemun winning Full-Time (HT/FT = 1/2); in my assessment 1/2 has the highest probability and I assign it a 34% chance.