INCA-Aruba vs Alianza: match statistics

Alianza has scored 6 and conceded 6 in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.2 goals against per game, with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. INCA-Aruba shows 0 goals this season and 0 goals in the last 5 matches with 0 points per game, indicating no confirmed achievements (0.0 PPG vs 1.4 PPG Alianza). Alianza averages 1.4 points per game across the last five fixtures versus the hosts’ 0.0 PPG, giving the visitors an edge in result stability. Alianza’s defensive weakness (1.2 conceded per game) keeps the risk of an open match and raises the probability of a draw, but the gap in documented offensive effectiveness (1.2 vs 0.0) favors the away side. On this basis the most likely outcome is a win for Alianza.

Home data is virtually absent — all seasonal and last-5 match statistics for INCA-Aruba are zero, so the assessment relies primarily on Alianza's data. Alianza have a BTTS rate of 40% in their last 5 matches (about 2 out of 5 games); in those five fixtures they scored 6 goals and conceded 6, averaging 1.2 goals for and 1.2 against per match. Their xG over the last 5 matches is 1.36 per game versus an xG against of 1.6 per game, indicating they create on average 1.36 expected goals while opponents generate more chances (1.6 xG). Given Alianza's historical BTTS of only 40% (implying 60% of matches are No Goal) and the lack of any offensive signal from the home side, the strongest signal from available numbers points to No Goal. Therefore I assign 65% to "no" and 35% to "yes", selecting 'no' as the most justified choice.

Alianza has scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches (1.2 per match) and conceded 6 goals (1.2), with an xG of 1.36 versus an xG against of 1.60, indicating moderate offensive potential paired with a vulnerable defense. Home side INCA-Aruba has no available stats in the dataset, so I applied a conservative estimate of 0.75 expected goals for the hosts; combined this yields an expected 2.11 goals in the match. At this mean, a Poisson distribution gives roughly a 62% probability for Over 1.5 goals, about 35% for Over 2.5 and around 16% for Over 3.5, which aligns with the fact that 40% of Alianza’s last 5 matches were Over 2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (62% vs 38%), therefore I recommend backing the Over side at the 1.5 line as the most value-exposed play.

Lack of data for the home side (all values = 0.0) increases uncertainty and complicates assessment of their pre-match form. Alianza’s last 5 matches show form D‑D‑W‑L‑L (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses — 40% wins, 20% draws, 40% losses), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, and at half-time they average 0.8 goals for and 1.0 against (difference −0.2). Additionally, in 4 of the 5 second halves (80%) Alianza’s second half was static and did not change the result, which suggests the half-time result often holds until full-time. On this basis the most reliable signal is '2/2' (Alianza leads at the break and wins), so I choose this as the main pick, although '1/1' carries similar weight due to the lack of home-team data.