Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC: match statistics
Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Independiente Juniors played Gualaceo SC in Primera Categoría Serie B (Ecuador). The match was played on 6 May 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Independiente Juniors: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Gualaceo SC: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Independiente Juniors scores 1.38 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Gualaceo SC scores 0.67 and concedes 0.67. League average: 2.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Independiente Juniors 75%, Gualaceo SC 11%. Over 2.5: Independiente Juniors 63%, Gualaceo SC 0%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Independiente Juniors has higher xG: 1.35 vs 1.24. Independiente Juniors: 9.6 shots per match, Gualaceo SC: 6.3.
Match halves
Independiente Juniors: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75. Gualaceo SC: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Independiente Juniors: 0-15 (3 goals). Gualaceo SC: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera Categoría Serie B: 2.00 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-1. Average goals 1.75, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Independiente Juniors are the favourites — they sit 2nd in the table and win 75% of home matches, are yet to lose at home (Loss% 0), scoring an average of 1.5 goals and registering 1.3 xG per home game. Gualaceo SC are 6th and struggle offensively away: only 0.33 goals per away match on average, 67% of away games without a goal and no away wins (Win% 0). xG creation is similar (1.3 vs 1.2), but the hosts are far more efficient — they average 10 shots per home game with a 15% conversion rate versus 0% for the visitors on the road, with both sides averaging 4.5 shots on target. Both teams have comparable form over the last 5 matches (avg. 2.2 points), yet defensively the hosts are slightly better (0.75 conceded at home vs 1.0 conceded by Gualaceo away) and have a superior home goal difference (+3), giving them the edge and prompting a bet on the home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The home side shows a very strong seasonal defensive signal: Independiente Juniors record an 80% clean sheet rate and a seasonal BTTS 0% with an average of 0.2 goals conceded per game, which strongly reduces the probability of BTTS - Yes. Gualaceo average only 0.33 goals per game this season and have a seasonal BTTS 33%, so on a season basis both teams rarely produce Goal/Goal matches. Conversely, in the last 5 matches the hosts had BTTS in 100% of cases and scored on average 1.8 goals (9 goals in 5 matches), with a recent average conceded of 1.2, which gives some argument for BTTS. However the visitors in their last 5 matches scored 4 goals and conceded none (0.0 average), and the xG for both sides is similar (xG for 1.27 vs 1.20 and xG against 0.96 vs 1.09), so overall the strong seasonal defensive signals prevail and No Goal / clean sheet expected is more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model shows xg_for_avg_home = 1.27 and xg_for_avg_away = 1.20, with xg_against_avg_home = 0.96 and xg_against_avg_away = 1.09, yielding expected goals of 1.18 for Independiente Juniors and 1.08 for Gualaceo SC (total 2.26). With that total, a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 66% chance of Over 1.5 goals and about 39% for Over 2.5, but seasonal metrics materially alter the picture. This season both teams have seasonOver25Percentage = 0% (none of their matches exceeded 2.5 goals), while the league average for Over 2.5 is 36%, indicating both clubs trend towards low-scoring games. Additionally, Independiente has 80% clean sheets at home and scores on average 1.0 goals at home, whereas Gualaceo averages only 0.33 goals away and has a season BTTS of 33% (home team BTTS 0%), which further supports a low-goal outcome. Given the moderate xG total of 2.26, the absence of >2.5 matches for both teams and the high share of home clean sheets, my strongest recommendation is Under 2.5 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Independiente Juniors have a clear advantage in the first half: this season they have led at the break in 40% of matches, and in the last 5 fixtures in as many as 60% (3 of 5), with an average halftime goals tally of 0.6 versus 0.0 for Gualaceo. The hosts score on average 1.0 goals per match compared to 0.33 for the visitors and concede only 0.2 goals per match; xG is 1.27 versus 1.20 and shot conversion is 15% versus 0% for the opponents — indicating superiority in chance conversion. Independiente win 60% of home matches and collect an average of 2.0 points per game, while Gualaceo have 0% wins and as many as 67% draws, so the full-time result leans toward a home victory. Additionally, the hosts have kept clean sheets in 80% of their matches this season, which reduces the risk of a turnaround by the visitors after the break; therefore the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Independiente Juniors | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 44% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Gualaceo SC is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Independiente Juniors · 1.8 pts / match - Gualaceo SC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Independiente Juniors is 106% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Independiente Juniors · 0.67 goals / match - Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Independiente Juniors · 0.67 goals / match - Gualaceo SC
Independiente Juniors scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Gualaceo SC keeps a clean sheet in 56% (5 of 9 matches).
Gualaceo SC scores in 44% of matches (4 of 9 matches), while Independiente Juniors keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Independiente Juniors
Over / Under - Gualaceo SC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Independiente Juniors is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Independiente Juniors · 1.11 pts / match - Gualaceo SC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Independiente Juniors - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Gualaceo SC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Independiente Juniors
Gualaceo SC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera Categoría Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Independiente Juniors | Liga | Gualaceo SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.38 | 2.00 | ▼ 1.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 75% | 46% | ▼ 11% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 36% | ▼ 0% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 25% | 35% | ▲ 56% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 56% | • 56% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 66% | ▼ 33% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Independiente JuniorsGoalJustin Raúl Cuero Palacio
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Independiente Juniors 2 - 1 - 1 Gualaceo SC. Average goals 1.75, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC?
The Primera Categoría Serie B match finished Independiente Juniors 1:1 Gualaceo SC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Juniors and Gualaceo SC?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Independiente Juniors won 2, Gualaceo SC won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 1.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC?
Independiente Juniors score 1.38 goals per game on average and Gualaceo SC 0.67. The Primera Categoría Serie B average is 2.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 75% of Independiente Juniors's matches and 11% of Gualaceo SC's.
What form are Independiente Juniors and Gualaceo SC in?
Over the last 5 games Independiente Juniors have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Gualaceo SC 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC?
The statistical background for Independiente Juniors vs Gualaceo SC — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.