Independiente Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo: match statistics
Independiente Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Independiente Juniors played LDU Portoviejo in Primera Categoría Serie B (Ecuador). The match was played on 30 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Independiente Juniors: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. LDU Portoviejo: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Independiente Juniors scores 1.17 and concedes 0.83 goals per match. LDU Portoviejo scores 0.83 and concedes 1.17. League average: 2.00 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Independiente Juniors 67%, LDU Portoviejo 33%. Over 2.5: Independiente Juniors 50%, LDU Portoviejo 33%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
LDU Portoviejo has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.43. Independiente Juniors: 9.7 shots per match, LDU Portoviejo: 10.2.
Match halves
Independiente Juniors: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.83. LDU Portoviejo: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Independiente Juniors: 61-75 (2 goals). LDU Portoviejo: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera Categoría Serie B: 2.00 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Independiente Juniors are the clear favorites: at home they have a 67% win rate and 0% losses, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match. LDU Portoviejo sit 8th and have yet to win away (0% wins), conceding 2.00 goals on average while scoring only 0.67. The defensive gap is approximately 1.33 goals per match (0.67 vs 2.00), and the home attacking advantage is about 0.66 goals (1.33 vs 0.67); additionally, the home xG for Independiente is 1.38 versus 1.10 xG for the visitors on the road. Independiente averages 10.33 shots and 5.0 on target at home, while the visitors average 7.0 shots and 3.5 on target, which—given similar finishing rates (13% vs 14%)—yields more scoring opportunities for the hosts. Considering form (hosts 1.6 pts in the last 5 matches vs visitors 1.4 pts) and the fact the visitors have lost their last three away games, I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back Both Teams To Score: NO, because Independiente Juniors concedes only 0.33 goals per match this season and have a 67% clean sheet rate, while LDU Portoviejo scores just 0.67 goals per match season-wide and has no clean sheets (0%). Seasonal BTTS rates for both teams are 33% each, and the league features a high clean sheet frequency of 64%, favoring one-scorer outcomes. Although the hosts had an 80% BTTS rate in their last 5 matches and the visitors scored 8 goals in their last 5 (1.6 avg), recent xG shows a creative edge for the home side: season xG_for home 1.82 versus xG_against_away 1.65, while LDU’s season goals average remains low at 0.67. Additionally Independiente averages 16 shots and 5.67 on target per match versus 7 and 3.5 for the visitors, indicating the hosts will create chances, and the clean sheet stats plus LDU’s low finishing favor the “No” scenario.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG and defensive analysis shows expected goals of 1.74 for Independiente Juniors (xG_for 1.82 vs LDU defense xG_against 1.65) and 1.01 for LDU Portoviejo (xG_for 1.10 vs home defense xG_against 0.92), totaling ≈2.75 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ≈2.75 yields about a 76% probability for Over 1.5, roughly 52% for Over 2.5 and about 30% for Over 3.5. Additionally, the home side creates more chances: on average 16 shots and 5.67 on target per match versus the visitors’ 7 shots and 3.5 on target; despite the visitors’ higher conversion rate (14% vs 6%), the volume of opportunities favors goals. In the last 5 matches the home team scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and the visitors 8 goals (1.6), so the strongest and most probable signal from the data is Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
HT data show the home team were level at the break in 2 of 3 matches (67%), and led at half-time in only one (33%), indicating a high probability of a draw at the break. The Full-Time outcome favors the home side: they win 67% of matches while the away team has recorded no wins (0%), so the home side has greater chances of a turnaround after the break. This is supported by superiority in expected goals and shots — average home xG 1.82 versus 1.10 for guests, average shots 16.0 versus 7.0 and shots on target 5.67 versus 3.5, suggesting the ability to score in the second half. Combining HT: draw (67%) with FT: home win (67%) yields that the scenario draw at the break and home win (X/1) is the strongest signal — approximately 45% probability. The scenario home leading at the break and holding the lead (1/1) has moderate support (~22%: 33% HT leads × 67% conversion of a lead into a win), whereas variants with an away win are effectively negligible according to the data.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Independiente Juniors | LDU Portoviejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Independiente Juniors is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Independiente Juniors · 1.4 pts / match - LDU Portoviejo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Independiente Juniors is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
1.17 goals / match - Independiente Juniors · 0.83 goals / match - LDU Portoviejo
Independiente Juniors is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.83 goals / match - Independiente Juniors · 1.17 goals / match - LDU Portoviejo
Independiente Juniors scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while LDU Portoviejo keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
LDU Portoviejo scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while Independiente Juniors keeps a clean sheet in 33% (2 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Independiente Juniors
Over / Under - LDU Portoviejo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
LDU Portoviejo is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Independiente Juniors · 1.33 pts / match - LDU Portoviejo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Independiente Juniors - second-half results
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
LDU Portoviejo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Independiente Juniors
LDU Portoviejo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera Categoría Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Independiente Juniors | Liga | LDU Portoviejo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.00 | 2.00 | • 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 50% | ▼ 33% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 33% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | • 33% | 32% | • 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 33% | 57% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 67% | • 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Independiente Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo?
The Primera Categoría Serie B match finished Independiente Juniors 2:1 LDU Portoviejo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Independiente Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo?
Independiente Juniors score 1.17 goals per game on average and LDU Portoviejo 0.83. The Primera Categoría Serie B average is 2.00 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Independiente Juniors's matches and 33% of LDU Portoviejo's.
What form are Independiente Juniors and LDU Portoviejo in?
Over the last 5 games Independiente Juniors have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and LDU Portoviejo 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Independiente Juniors vs LDU Portoviejo?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.