Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF: match statistics
Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Independiente Medellín played Fortaleza CEIF in Categoria Primera A (Colombia). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Independiente Medellín: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Fortaleza CEIF: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Independiente Medellín scores 1.41 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Fortaleza CEIF scores 1.18 and concedes 1.47. League average: 2.51 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Independiente Medellín 71%, Fortaleza CEIF 76%. Over 2.5: Independiente Medellín 59%, Fortaleza CEIF 47%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Independiente Medellín has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.31. Independiente Medellín: 14.3 shots per match, Fortaleza CEIF: 12.6.
Match halves
Independiente Medellín: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.88. Fortaleza CEIF: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.82.
Goals by minute
Independiente Medellín: 76-90+ (6 goals). Fortaleza CEIF: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Categoria Primera A: 2.51 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Independiente Medellín holds a clear statistical advantage ahead of this match: at home they average 1.63 goals with an xG of 1.86, 6.13 SOT and 17.75 shots, while Fortaleza away records 1.00 goals, xG 1.13, 2.88 SOT and 11.25 shots. The hosts concede 1.38 goals on average at home versus 2.00 conceded by the visitors away, and the clean sheet rate is 0% for the hosts and 25% for the visitors, which favors Medellín. Fortaleza has no away wins (0% W) and a negative away goal difference (-8), whereas the hosts have a positive home goal difference (+2) and higher possession (57% vs 49%). In the last 5 matches both teams scored 7 goals, but the hosts earned an average of 1.4 pts per match compared to 1.0 pts for the visitors, indicating superior points efficiency for the home side. Based on these differentials (better xG 1.86 vs 1.13, more SOT 6.13 vs 2.88 and lower average goals conceded 1.38 vs 2.00) I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show a very high rate of matches with both teams scoring: Independiente Medellín 78% and Fortaleza 75%, versus the league BTTS average of 54%. In the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for Medellín and 80% for Fortaleza, and both sides average 1.4 goals scored and concede on average 1.6 and 1.4 respectively, giving a realistic chance of goals from both teams. Seasonal goals for/against averages confirm this picture: Medellín has scored 24 and conceded 22 (avg 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded), Fortaleza has scored 20 and conceded 25 (1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded). xG and shots stats also support BTTS: Medellín has xG 1.47 and 4.56 shots on target per match, Fortaleza xG 1.13 and 2.88 shots on target, with xG against 0.97 and 1.36; low clean sheet percentages 22% and 13% further decrease the likelihood of No Goal. Based on these data I favor BTTS - Yes at 80% versus 20% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a clear probability for Over 1.5 — this season 89% of Independiente Medellín’s matches and 88% of Fortaleza’s matches finished over 1.5 goals, and both teams have high BTTS rates: 78% and 75%. Based on xG, expected goals are 1.42 for the home side and 1.05 for the away side (total 2.47), which is close to the league average of 2.51 and suggests at least 2 goals in the match. Additionally, Medellín averages 4.56 SOT and 13.78 shots per game with a 10% conversion rate, while Fortaleza has 2.88 SOT and concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. The 2.5 line is more balanced — season Over 2.5 rates are 44% (home) and 50% (away), and the xG model gives roughly a 45% chance of Over 2.5, so there is no clear edge. As a result, the strongest and most reliable signal from the data is Over 1.5 (back), whereas Over 3.5 is rated low (approx. 23% chance).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: the home side were level at the break in 67% of their matches, while the visitors led at half-time in 0% of their games, which clearly favors a draw in the first half. In the second half the advantage lies with the hosts — their average xG is 1.47 versus the visitors' 1.13, they average 4.56 shots on target compared to the visitors' 2.88, and they scored 7 goals in minutes 76–90 versus 2 for the visitors, which supports resolutions after the break. Hosts average 2.0 points in the second half versus 1.38 for the visitors and win 56% of second halves compared to the visitors' 38%, and additionally the home team won 44% of matches this season versus 0% wins for the visitors, so the chance of turning a draw into a home victory is significant. Therefore my top pick is draw at half-time and home win at full-time (X/1 — 40%); the second most likely is draw/draw (X/X — 28%), and home leading at half-time and winning at the end (1/1) I assess at 12%, with the remaining combinations totaling 20%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Independiente Medellín | Fortaleza CEIF | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Independiente Medellín is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Independiente Medellín · 1 pts / match - Fortaleza CEIF
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Independiente Medellín is 19% better for: goals scored per match.
1.41 goals / match - Independiente Medellín · 1.18 goals / match - Fortaleza CEIF
Independiente Medellín is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Independiente Medellín · 1.47 goals / match - Fortaleza CEIF
Independiente Medellín scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Fortaleza CEIF keeps a clean sheet in 18% (3 of 17 matches).
Fortaleza CEIF scores in 88% of matches (15 of 17 matches), while Independiente Medellín keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Independiente Medellín
Over / Under - Fortaleza CEIF
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Independiente Medellín is 35% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.88 pts / match - Independiente Medellín · 0.65 pts / match - Fortaleza CEIF
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Independiente Medellín - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Fortaleza CEIF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Independiente Medellín
Fortaleza CEIF
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Categoria Primera A).
Teams vs league
| Independiente Medellín | Liga | Fortaleza CEIF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.71 | 2.51 | ▲ 2.65 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 54% | ▲ 76% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 47% | • 47% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 27% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 70% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 78% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Independiente MedellínSubstitutionOn: Hayen Santiago Palacios SánchezOff: Francisco Javier Chaverra Angulo
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Independiente Medellín 1 - 1 - 0 Fortaleza CEIF. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The Categoria Primera A match finished Independiente Medellín 1:0 Fortaleza CEIF. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente Medellín and Fortaleza CEIF?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Independiente Medellín won 1, Fortaleza CEIF won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF?
Independiente Medellín score 1.41 goals per game on average and Fortaleza CEIF 1.18. The Categoria Primera A average is 2.51 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Independiente Medellín's matches and 76% of Fortaleza CEIF's.
What form are Independiente Medellín and Fortaleza CEIF in?
Over the last 5 games Independiente Medellín have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Fortaleza CEIF 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF?
The statistical background for Independiente Medellín vs Fortaleza CEIF — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.