Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely evenly balanced. Independiente are in solid form with three wins in their last five matches and an impressive goal difference of 7:2; however, at home they have recorded two draws without a win. Vélez Sarsfield have a 100% away record this season (two wins, zero goals conceded), but their form in their last five matches is uncertain with two defeats. A key factor is the visitors' possession advantage (53% vs 40%) and their high shooting accuracy away from home (14%). On the other hand, the hosts have better xG statistics in home matches (1.37 vs 0.91 for the visitors away) and show greater offensive activity. Taking into account Vélez's defensive solidity away from home and Independiente's difficulties in securing wins at home, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a narrow victory for either side.
Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Independiente play Vélez Sarsfield in Primera División (Argentina). The match date is 31 January 2026 at 23:45. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Independiente: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Vélez Sarsfield: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Independiente scores 1.47 and concedes 1.35 goals per match. Vélez Sarsfield scores 1.06 and concedes 0.76. League average: 2.08 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Independiente 71%, Vélez Sarsfield 47%. Over 2.5: Independiente 41%, Vélez Sarsfield 24%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Independiente: 12.7 shots per match, Vélez Sarsfield: 12.7.
Match halves
Independiente: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.82. Vélez Sarsfield: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Independiente: 31-45+ (6 goals). Vélez Sarsfield: 0-15 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.08 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 34%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.
Match description
The match promises to be extremely evenly balanced. Independiente are in solid form with three wins in their last five matches and an impressive goal difference of 7:2; however, at home they have recorded two draws without a win. Vélez Sarsfield have a 100% away record this season (two wins, zero goals conceded), but their form in their last five matches is uncertain with two defeats. A key factor is the visitors' possession advantage (53% vs 40%) and their high shooting accuracy away from home (14%). On the other hand, the hosts have better xG statistics in home matches (1.37 vs 0.91 for the visitors away) and show greater offensive activity. Taking into account Vélez's defensive solidity away from home and Independiente's difficulties in securing wins at home, the most likely scenario seems to be a draw or a narrow victory for either side.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Independiente | Vélez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Independiente is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Independiente · 1.2 pts / match - Vélez Sarsfield
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Independiente is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.47 goals / match - Independiente · 1.06 goals / match - Vélez Sarsfield
Vélez Sarsfield is 78% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.35 goals / match - Independiente · 0.76 goals / match - Vélez Sarsfield
Independiente scores in 94% of matches (16 of 17 matches), while Vélez Sarsfield keeps a clean sheet in 41% (7 of 17 matches).
Vélez Sarsfield scores in 76% of matches (13 of 17 matches), while Independiente keeps a clean sheet in 24% (4 of 17 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Independiente
Over / Under — Vélez Sarsfield
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Vélez Sarsfield is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Independiente · 1.35 pts / match - Vélez Sarsfield
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Independiente - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Vélez Sarsfield - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Independiente
Vélez Sarsfield
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Independiente | Liga | Vélez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.82 | 2.08 | ▼ 1.82 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 71% | 45% | ▲ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 41% | 34% | ▼ 24% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 34% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 61% | ▼ 59% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▼ 65% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Independiente 1 - 1 - 1 Vélez Sarsfield. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield?
The Primera División match finished Independiente 1:1 Vélez Sarsfield. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Independiente and Vélez Sarsfield?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Independiente won 1, Vélez Sarsfield won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield?
Independiente score 1.47 goals per game on average and Vélez Sarsfield 1.06. The Primera División average is 2.08 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 34% of games. Both teams score in 71% of Independiente's matches and 47% of Vélez Sarsfield's.
What form are Independiente and Vélez Sarsfield in?
Over the last 5 games Independiente have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Vélez Sarsfield 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Independiente vs Vélez Sarsfield: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.