Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg: match statistics
Ingolstadt presents solid home form with 42% wins and only 17% of matches without scoring at their own stadium. The hosts have a positive goal difference at home (+4) and an advantage in expected goals (xG 1.87 vs xGA 1.69), indicating offensive effectiveness. MSV Duisburg, despite a good position in the table, has problems on the road – only 31% wins and as many as 31% of matches without scoring, with their recent form being unstable (lwlwd). Duisburg has a balanced goal difference away (0) and a lower xG (1.36), suggesting difficulties in creating chances. Considering the hosts' advantage in home statistics and the visitors' weaker away disposition, I predict a victory for Ingolstadt, although MSV Duisburg, as the third-placed team, has the potential to pose difficult conditions.
Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ingolstadt played MSV Duisburg in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 4 March 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Ingolstadt: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. MSV Duisburg: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ingolstadt scores 1.73 and concedes 1.38 goals per match. MSV Duisburg scores 1.81 and concedes 1.27. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ingolstadt 77%, MSV Duisburg 65%. Over 2.5: Ingolstadt 69%, MSV Duisburg 65%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Ingolstadt has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.56. Ingolstadt: 14.0 shots per match, MSV Duisburg: 12.7.
Match halves
Ingolstadt: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.08. MSV Duisburg: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 1.04.
Goals by minute
Ingolstadt: 76-90+ (13 goals). MSV Duisburg: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Ingolstadt presents solid home form with 42% wins and only 17% of matches without scoring at their own stadium. The hosts have a positive goal difference at home (+4) and an advantage in expected goals (xG 1.87 vs xGA 1.69), indicating offensive effectiveness. MSV Duisburg, despite a good position in the table, has problems on the road – only 31% wins and as many as 31% of matches without scoring, with their recent form being unstable (lwlwd). Duisburg has a balanced goal difference away (0) and a lower xG (1.36), suggesting difficulties in creating chances. Considering the hosts' advantage in home statistics and the visitors' weaker away disposition, I predict a victory for Ingolstadt, although MSV Duisburg, as the third-placed team, has the potential to pose difficult conditions.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ingolstadt | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ingolstadt is 14% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Ingolstadt · 1.4 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
MSV Duisburg is 5% better for: goals scored per match.
1.73 goals / match - Ingolstadt · 1.81 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.38 goals / match - Ingolstadt · 1.27 goals / match - MSV Duisburg
Ingolstadt scores in 88% of matches (23 of 26 matches), while MSV Duisburg keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
MSV Duisburg scores in 81% of matches (21 of 26 matches), while Ingolstadt keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ingolstadt
Over / Under - MSV Duisburg
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
MSV Duisburg is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - Ingolstadt · 1.46 pts / match - MSV Duisburg
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ingolstadt - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
MSV Duisburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ingolstadt
MSV Duisburg
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ingolstadt | Liga | MSV Duisburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.12 | 3.13 | • 3.08 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 77% | 64% | • 65% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 69% | 64% | • 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 21% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 76% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 84% | ▼ 77% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ingolstadt 0 - 0 - 1 MSV Duisburg. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?
The 3. Liga match finished Ingolstadt 0:0 MSV Duisburg. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?
Ingolstadt score 1.73 goals per game on average and MSV Duisburg 1.81. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 77% of Ingolstadt's matches and 65% of MSV Duisburg's.
What form are Ingolstadt and MSV Duisburg in?
Over the last 5 games Ingolstadt have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and MSV Duisburg 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ingolstadt vs MSV Duisburg?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.