Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück: match statistics
Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ingolstadt played Osnabrück in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Ingolstadt: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Osnabrück: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ingolstadt scores 1.58 and concedes 1.45 goals per match. Osnabrück scores 1.67 and concedes 0.82. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ingolstadt 76%, Osnabrück 36%. Over 2.5: Ingolstadt 70%, Osnabrück 42%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Ingolstadt has higher xG: 1.59 vs 1.58. Ingolstadt: 13.5 shots per match, Osnabrück: 13.0.
Match halves
Ingolstadt: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.97. Osnabrück: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 1.06.
Goals by minute
Ingolstadt: 76-90+ (14 goals). Osnabrück: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors: Osnabrück sit 1st with a record of 20 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses and 55 goals scored, while Ingolstadt are 14th with a 10-10-13 record and 52 goals. The home side's form is alarming — Ingolstadt have lost 5 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 4 and conceding 11 (0 points in last 5), whereas Osnabrück in that period have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring 7 and conceding 5 (averaging 1.4 points per match). Defensively the visitors perform better: Ingolstadt at home concede 1.38 goals per game and have only 19% clean sheets, while Osnabrück away concede 1.06 goals and register 44% clean sheets; the away goal difference for the visitors is +12 versus +1 for the hosts. Offensively the hosts generate more shots and have higher xG at home (15.13 shots, 5.25 on target, xG 1.71) than the visitors away (13 shots, 4.56 on target, xG 1.57), but Ingolstadt’s efficiency is lower (conversion 10% versus 14% for Osnabrück), which favors the visitors. Considering the hosts’ 0 points and 5 losses versus Osnabrück’s stability and higher efficiency, I forecast an away win; suggested probabilities are 65% away, 20% draw and 15% home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assess 62% for BTTS - Yes and 38% for No Goal; I pick 'yes'. The primary argument is the very similar xG values: Ingolstadt has xG_for 1.58 vs 1.57 for Osnabrück, and both teams average 13 shots with 4.76 vs 4.56 shots on target and conversion rates of 12% (home) and 14% (away). Additionally, Ingolstadt have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per match) with an average xG_against of 1.71, while Osnabrück have scored 7 goals in their last 5 (1.4 per match) and have last5 xG_for 1.35, which increases the likelihood the visitors will score. Counterbalancing factors come from the hosts’ season-long numbers: Ingolstadt’s season BTTS is only 24% and they have a 65% clean sheet expected rate, whereas Osnabrück’s season BTTS is 50%, which partially limits the both-teams-to-score scenario. Despite the historical advantage of home clean sheets, the league-wide BTTS frequency of 64% and Ingolstadt’s current defensive issues lead me to choose 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model estimates 1.58 xG for Ingolstadt and 1.57 xG for Osnabrück; after adjusting for opponent defenses (xG_against_away 1.44 and xG_against_home 1.16) this yields an expected 1.51 goals for the home side and 1.37 for the away side, totaling 2.88 goals. With λ=2.88 the Poisson distribution gives approximately a 78% probability for Over 1.5 goals (1 - P(0 or 1) ≈ 0.78), which aligns with season Over1.5 rates: 65% for Ingolstadt and 69% for Osnabrück. For the 2.5 line Poisson estimates P(≥3) ≈ 54.6% (hence the suggested Over 2.5 ≈55%); additionally Ingolstadt have had Over 2.5 in 80% of their last 5 matches and the league average goals is 3.13. At the same time Ingolstadt record 65% clean sheets and concede on average 0.59 goals per game, while Osnabrück score 1.81 on average and have 50% BTTS, which limits confidence in a very high-scoring outcome (Over 3.5 ≈32%). As a result the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (selection) due to the 78% probability and combined xG of 2.88.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for Osnabrück (X/2). Ingolstadt were level at the break in 53% of their matches this season and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 82% of games, conceding on average 0.18 goals before the break; however, in their last five home matches they did not lead at half-time (0% leads) and conceded an average of 1.25 goals before the break. The visitors led at half-time in 50% of their last five matches and averaged 1.0 goal before the break in those five games; season-long they average 0.69 goals by half-time. After the break Osnabrück perform better: in the last five second halves their average points return is 1.75 versus 1.0 for the home side, and the xG for both teams is almost equal (1.57 for the visitors vs. 1.58 for the hosts), suggesting the visitors’ advantage comes from form and better finishing after the break. Therefore the strongest signal from the data is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for the visitors (X/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ingolstadt | Osnabrück | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Osnabrück is 300% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Ingolstadt · 2.4 pts / match - Osnabrück
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Osnabrück is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
1.58 goals / match - Ingolstadt · 1.67 goals / match - Osnabrück
Osnabrück is 77% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.45 goals / match - Ingolstadt · 0.82 goals / match - Osnabrück
Ingolstadt scores in 85% of matches (28 of 33 matches), while Osnabrück keeps a clean sheet in 55% (18 of 33 matches).
Osnabrück scores in 79% of matches (26 of 33 matches), while Ingolstadt keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ingolstadt
Over / Under - Osnabrück
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Osnabrück is 27% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.27 pts / match - Ingolstadt · 1.61 pts / match - Osnabrück
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ingolstadt - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Osnabrück - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ingolstadt
Osnabrück
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Ingolstadt | Liga | Osnabrück | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 3.03 | 3.13 | ▼ 2.48 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 76% | 64% | ▼ 36% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 70% | 63% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 21% | ▲ 55% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 77% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 88% | 83% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Ingolstadt 0 - 0 - 1 Osnabrück. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück?
The 3. Liga match finished Ingolstadt 0:1 Osnabrück. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück?
Ingolstadt score 1.58 goals per game on average and Osnabrück 1.67. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 76% of Ingolstadt's matches and 36% of Osnabrück's.
What form are Ingolstadt and Osnabrück in?
Over the last 5 games Ingolstadt have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Osnabrück 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ingolstadt vs Osnabrück?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.