Inter Miami vs Austin: match statistics
Inter Miami vs Austin: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Inter Miami played Austin in MLS (United States). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Inter Miami: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Austin: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Inter Miami scores 1.80 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. Austin scores 1.00 and concedes 1.40. League average: 3.06 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Inter Miami 60%, Austin 60%. Over 2.5: Inter Miami 80%, Austin 60%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 61%.
xG, shots and style
Inter Miami has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.25. Inter Miami: 13.2 shots per match, Austin: 10.6.
Match halves
Inter Miami: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 1.20. Austin: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
Inter Miami: 16-30 (2 goals). Austin: 76-90+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS: 3.06 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 61%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict an Inter Miami win. The hosts have a season record of 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded per match; in their last 5 games they scored 6, conceded 4 and averaged 1.8 points per game. Austin have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses this season with 5 scored and 7 conceded (1.0 goal per game), and in their last 5 matches they scored 5 and conceded 7, reflecting inconsistent form. Away, Austin concede an average of 2.5 goals per game with xG against 2.75 versus xG for only 0.76, and despite averaging 7.5 shots per game only 1.5 hit the target, indicating poor quality of chances created on the road. Considering this, I assign Inter Miami a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for Austin.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I predict Both Teams To Score: 70% for BTTS - Yes and 30% for No. The strongest signal is Austin, with a season BTTS of 100% and conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game versus xG against 2.75, which significantly increases likelihood of conceding. Inter Miami at home has a 67% clean sheet rate and a seasonal average conceded of 0.67 goals, but home xG is 1.58 and in the last 5 matches Miami had BTTS in 60% (6 scored and 4 conceded), showing they can still allow a goal. Austin, despite a season away xG of 0.76 and averaging 1.0 goals per away match, has an xG of 1.25 in the last 5 and scored 5 goals, so they have a realistic chance to score. Considering Austin's 100% BTTS versus Miami's 33% BTTS and the league average BTTS of 51%, the most consistent signal from the data is a BTTS - Yes selection.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG matchup model projects 2.17 expected goals for Inter Miami (home attacking xG 1.58 vs Austin’s away conceded xG 2.75) and 0.92 for Austin (away attacking xG 0.76 vs Inter Miami’s conceded xG 1.07), totaling 3.09 goals. With that mean, the distribution indicates a high probability of Over 1.5 goals (about 81%), a significant probability of Over 2.5 goals (about 60%), and a lower probability of Over 3.5 goals (about 37%). Additionally, Austin as the away team has 100% of matches this season exceeding both 1.5 and 2.5 goals and concedes an average of 2.5 goals per game, which increases the chances of Over markets, although Inter Miami has 67% of home games with a clean sheet and only 33% of matches where both teams scored. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (about 81%), while Over 2.5 (about 60%) is a secondary option worth considering.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I am backing X/1 (draw at Half-Time, home win at Full-Time) as the most likely scenario. A draw at the break is justified: the home side were level at Half-Time in 60% of their last five matches and the visitors in 100%, so a deadlock in the first half is common. After the break the numbers favour Inter Miami – the home xG is 1.58 versus Austin’s 0.76, the hosts average 5.33 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 1.5, they score on average 0.67 goals after the break while the visitors have 0.0, and Austin concedes on average 1.5 goals in the second half. The hosts led at the break in 40% of their last five matches and have a better points average (1.8 points in the last five matches versus 1.0 for the visitors and a season average of 1.67 vs 0.0), which increases the chance of a turnaround to a home win after a draw. Therefore I assigned X/1 the highest probability at 33%, then 1/1 at 28% and X/X at 14%, while scenarios with the visitors leading at Half-Time I assess as unlikely (10% combined).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Inter Miami | Austin | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Inter Miami is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Inter Miami · 1 pts / match - Austin
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Miami is 80% better for: goals scored per match.
1.8 goals / match - Inter Miami · 1 goals / match - Austin
Austin is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - Inter Miami · 1.4 goals / match - Austin
Inter Miami scores in 60% of matches (3 of 5 matches), while Austin keeps a clean sheet in 40% (2 of 5 matches).
Austin scores in 80% of matches (4 of 5 matches), while Inter Miami keeps a clean sheet in 20% (1 of 5 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Inter Miami
Over / Under - Austin
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Inter Miami - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Austin - second-half results
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Inter Miami
Austin
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS).
Teams vs league
| Inter Miami | Liga | Austin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.40 | 3.06 | ▼ 2.40 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 52% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 80% | 61% | • 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 20% | 28% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 80% | 73% | ▼ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 80% | 82% | ▼ 80% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Inter Miami vs Austin?
The MLS match finished Inter Miami 2:2 Austin. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Inter Miami vs Austin?
Inter Miami score 1.80 goals per game on average and Austin 1.00. The MLS average is 3.06 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Inter Miami's matches and 60% of Austin's.
What form are Inter Miami and Austin in?
Over the last 5 games Inter Miami have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Austin 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Inter Miami vs Austin?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.