Inter Milan vs Atalanta: match statistics
As table leaders, Inter Mediolan displays an impressive home form with a 79% win rate and a +26 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.71 goals per home match, with only 7% of games without scoring a goal. Atalanta is significantly weaker in away matches, with a mere 31% win rate and an average of 1.15 goals per match, providing a stark contrast to Inter's strength. The recent form of both teams also favors the hosts - Inter has solid home results (4 wins in their last 5 home games), while Atalanta is going through a slump (only 1 win in their last 5 matches). The advantage in ball possession (60% vs 55%), higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 9%), and better overall form (PPG 1.4 vs 1.0) further support the prediction of an Inter win, although Atalanta's experience and their 38% away draw rate suggest the possibility of a tight result.
Inter Milan vs Atalanta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Inter Milan played Atalanta in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Inter Milan: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Atalanta: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Inter Milan scores 2.29 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Atalanta scores 1.39 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Inter Milan 39%, Atalanta 54%. Over 2.5: Inter Milan 54%, Atalanta 39%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Inter Milan has higher xG: 2.04 vs 1.68. Inter Milan: 18.3 shots per match, Atalanta: 15.1.
Match halves
Inter Milan: half-time lead 54%, second-half goals 1.32. Atalanta: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Inter Milan: 76-90+ (17 goals). Atalanta: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
As table leaders, Inter Mediolan displays an impressive home form with a 79% win rate and a +26 goal difference at their stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.71 goals per home match, with only 7% of games without scoring a goal. Atalanta is significantly weaker in away matches, with a mere 31% win rate and an average of 1.15 goals per match, providing a stark contrast to Inter's strength. The recent form of both teams also favors the hosts - Inter has solid home results (4 wins in their last 5 home games), while Atalanta is going through a slump (only 1 win in their last 5 matches). The advantage in ball possession (60% vs 55%), higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 9%), and better overall form (PPG 1.4 vs 1.0) further support the prediction of an Inter win, although Atalanta's experience and their 38% away draw rate suggest the possibility of a tight result.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Inter Milan | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Inter Milan is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Inter Milan · 2 pts / match - Atalanta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Milan is 65% better for: goals scored per match.
2.29 goals / match - Inter Milan · 1.39 goals / match - Atalanta
Inter Milan is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - Inter Milan · 0.93 goals / match - Atalanta
Inter Milan scores in 93% of matches (26 of 28 matches), while Atalanta keeps a clean sheet in 36% (10 of 28 matches).
Atalanta scores in 82% of matches (23 of 28 matches), while Inter Milan keeps a clean sheet in 54% (15 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Inter Milan
Over / Under - Atalanta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inter Milan is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.93 pts / match - Inter Milan · 1.5 pts / match - Atalanta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Inter Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 54% of matches and wins 79%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atalanta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +7 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (17 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Inter Milan
Atalanta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Inter Milan | Liga | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.07 | 2.45 | ▼ 2.32 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 39% | 47% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 54% | 48% | ▼ 39% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 54% | 31% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 65% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Inter Milan 1 - 0 - 0 Atalanta. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Inter Milan vs Atalanta?
The Serie A match finished Inter Milan 1:1 Atalanta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Inter Milan vs Atalanta?
Inter Milan score 2.29 goals per game on average and Atalanta 1.39. The Serie A average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 39% of Inter Milan's matches and 54% of Atalanta's.
What form are Inter Milan and Atalanta in?
Over the last 5 games Inter Milan have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Atalanta 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Inter Milan vs Atalanta?
The statistical background for Inter Milan vs Atalanta — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.