Inter Milan vs Lecce: match statistics
Inter Milan, as the table leader, presents dominant form, particularly in home matches where they achieve a 70% win rate and an impressive 26:8 goal record. The hosts average 2.6 goals per match at home, with only 10% of games ending without them scoring. Lecce sits in 17th place and struggles significantly in away fixtures – recording only 25% wins, averaging 0.75 goals scored, and conceding 1.5 goals per match. The disparity in quality (xG 1.98 vs 0.99) and current form (2.2 points per match for Inter vs 0.8 for Lecce in the last 5 games) clearly indicates the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, a victory for Inter is highly probable, with a slim chance for a draw and minimal probability of a surprise from the visitors.
Inter Milan vs Lecce: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Inter Milan played Lecce in Serie A (Italy). The match was played on 14 January 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Inter Milan: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Lecce: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Inter Milan scores 2.21 and concedes 0.89 goals per match. Lecce scores 0.68 and concedes 1.42. League average: 2.36 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Inter Milan 47%, Lecce 37%. Over 2.5: Inter Milan 63%, Lecce 37%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Inter Milan has higher xG: 1.93 vs 1.10. Inter Milan: 17.6 shots per match, Lecce: 9.8.
Match halves
Inter Milan: half-time lead 53%, second-half goals 1.32. Lecce: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.26.
Goals by minute
Inter Milan: 61-75 (10 goals). Lecce: 0-15 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.36 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Inter Milan, as the table leader, presents dominant form, particularly in home matches where they achieve a 70% win rate and an impressive 26:8 goal record. The hosts average 2.6 goals per match at home, with only 10% of games ending without them scoring. Lecce sits in 17th place and struggles significantly in away fixtures – recording only 25% wins, averaging 0.75 goals scored, and conceding 1.5 goals per match. The disparity in quality (xG 1.98 vs 0.99) and current form (2.2 points per match for Inter vs 0.8 for Lecce in the last 5 games) clearly indicates the hosts' advantage. Considering all statistics, a victory for Inter is highly probable, with a slim chance for a draw and minimal probability of a surprise from the visitors.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Inter Milan | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Inter Milan is 225% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Inter Milan · 0.8 pts / match - Lecce
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Inter Milan is 225% better for: goals scored per match.
2.21 goals / match - Inter Milan · 0.68 goals / match - Lecce
Inter Milan is 60% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.89 goals / match - Inter Milan · 1.42 goals / match - Lecce
Inter Milan scores in 95% of matches (18 of 19 matches), while Lecce keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
Lecce scores in 53% of matches (10 of 19 matches), while Inter Milan keeps a clean sheet in 47% (9 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Inter Milan
Over / Under - Lecce
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Inter Milan is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.89 pts / match - Inter Milan · 1.26 pts / match - Lecce
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Inter Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 53% of matches and wins 74%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lecce - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 21%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.6 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Inter Milan
Lecce
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Inter Milan | Liga | Lecce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.11 | 2.36 | ▼ 2.11 |
| Both teams scored | • 47% | 47% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 44% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 47% | 31% | • 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 64% | • 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
FAQ
What was the result of Inter Milan vs Lecce?
The Serie A match finished Inter Milan 1:0 Lecce. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Inter Milan vs Lecce?
Inter Milan score 2.21 goals per game on average and Lecce 0.68. The Serie A average is 2.36 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 47% of Inter Milan's matches and 37% of Lecce's.
What form are Inter Milan and Lecce in?
Over the last 5 games Inter Milan have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Lecce 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Inter Milan vs Lecce?
The statistical background for Inter Milan vs Lecce — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.