Inter Milan vs Roma: match statistics

Inter, the league leader, averages 2.6 goals per home match with xG 2.13 and 7 shots on target, while Roma average 1.13 goals away with xG 1.31 and 4 shots on target. Hosts concede 0.87 goals at home versus Roma’s 0.93 away and keep 40% clean sheets compared to the visitors’ 33%, with Inter’s shot conversion at 14% versus 10% for Roma. In the last 5 matches Inter scored 4 goals and has a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss, averaging 1.2 points per game, whereas Roma scored 7 goals but lost 3 of the last 5 and average 0.8 points per game, conceding 9 goals in that period. Inter also dominates possession (60% vs 55%) and win 73% of home matches versus Roma’s 47% away win rate, giving the hosts a clear edge. Considering these figures, I assess the probability at 65% for Inter, 20% for a draw and 15% for Roma.

Analysis based on xG and shots indicates a moderate advantage for the BTTS - Yes scenario: Inter’s home xG is 1.77 versus Roma’s xG against them 1.33, yielding an expected value for Inter of about 1.55 goals, while Roma’s xG is 1.31 versus xG against Inter 0.97 giving Roma about 1.14; from these values the probability Inter scores ≥1 is ~79% and Roma ≥1 is ~68%, which under independence implies ~54% for BTTS. However, Inter concedes only 0.6 goals per match season-to-date and has 53% of matches with a clean sheet, while their season BTTS rate is just 27%, which materially reduces the chance of both teams scoring. Roma in the last 5 matches has 80% BTTS, scoring on average 1.4 and conceding 1.8 (7 for and 9 against), which increases the likelihood they score against Inter. Considering Inter’s xG superiority (1.77 vs 1.31), higher shot volume (15.6 vs 10.8) and season goals average (1.53 vs 1.13), but also their high clean sheet rate, I give a slight edge to the BTTS scenario: 56% Yes vs 44% No.

I estimate 1.55 expected goals for Inter (xG attack 1.77 vs xG defense of Roma 1.33 → average 1.55) and 1.14 for Roma (xG attack 1.31 vs xG defense of Inter 0.97 → 1.14), totaling 2.69 expected goals. Inter averages 1.53 scored and concedes 0.60, Roma scores 1.13 and concedes 0.93; with average shots 15.6 vs 10.8 and a conversion rate of 10% this corresponds to roughly 1.56 vs 1.08 goals, confirming Inter’s advantage in chance creation. Season Over2.5 rates are 27% for Inter and 40% for Roma, but the combined xG of 2.69 exceeds the league average of 2.44 and a Poisson model yields ~75% for Over1.5 and ~50% for Over2.5, therefore I assign Over2.5 a moderate edge at ~52%. Over3.5 rates are low (13% for both Inter and Roma) and Inter has 53% clean sheets, so I downgrade the Poisson ~28% for Over3.5 to a conservative ~18%. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess ~80%), because the expected 2.69 goals, Inter’s xG advantage and the fact both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal strongly support at least two goals.

Inter has a clear advantage in attacking metrics and chance creation: on average 1.53 goals scored per match and xG 1.77 versus Roma’s 1.13 and xG 1.31, with 15.6 shots per game compared to the visitors’ 10.8. However, the hosts’ matches are often low-scoring at Half-Time — Inter averages 0.47 goals by the break at home and keeps a clean sheet at Half-Time in 87% of home games, while Roma averages 0.6 goals by the break away, which favors draws after 45 minutes. After the break Inter significantly accelerates: on average 1.07 goals in the second half at home versus Roma’s 0.53 away; 87% of Inter’s home matches see more than 0.5 goals after Half-Time, and Inter wins the second half in 60% of games. From these data the strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time and an Inter turnaround by Full-Time (X/1): the xG advantage 1.77 vs 1.31 and the ability to average 1.07 goals after the break support a reversal after 45 minutes. Therefore I select the X/1 scenario as the most probable HT/FT outcome.