Inter San Carlos vs Deportivo Saprissa: match statistics

Deportivo Saprissa are in outstanding form, having won five consecutive matches and scored 12 goals across their last five fixtures, while Inter San Carlos have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat over the same period. The visitors are particularly solid away from home: they have won 100% of their away matches, average 2 goals per game and have yet to concede. Inter average 1.5 goals at home, but their defence allows opponents chances worth an average xG of 2.08—significantly higher than the 0.55 xG conceded by Saprissa away from home. The visitors’ conversion rate stands at 18% compared with 12% for the hosts, and with a similar number of shots on target per match—6 to 7—this points to Saprissa being more efficient in converting their chances. Inter remain unbeaten at home, but the high quality of chances they concede and Saprissa’s perfect away record point to an away win.

Deportivo Saprissa have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their league matches so far, while their average xG against is just 0.55, significantly limiting Inter San Carlos’s chances of scoring. The hosts have scored only 1.0 goal per match over their last 5 games, with an xG of 1.15, whereas Saprissa have conceded an average of 0.8 goals and allowed opponents 0.98 xG. However, the visitors are very strong offensively, averaging 2.4 goals and 1.71 xG in their last 5 appearances, so the most realistic scenario is that they secure the result themselves. Inter’s season-long BTTS rate is 100%, but this is based on a small sample and contradicts Saprissa’s 0% BTTS record and their very solid defence. Therefore, BTTS - No is slightly more likely, meaning a match in which at least one team fails to score.

Deportivo Saprissa are in excellent form, having won their last five matches and scoring an average of 2.4 goals in them, while Inter San Carlos allowed opponents an xG of 1.66. The hosts have scored only 1.0 goal per match across their last five fixtures, but Saprissa conceded an average of 0.8 goals, so Inter still have a realistic chance of adding to the scoreline. Combining the visitors’ current attacking xG of 1.71 with a projected 1.05 goals for the hosts gives an expected total of around 2.73 goals. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of both teams’ matches so far, making Over 1.5 the clearly strongest pick, although the Over/Under 2.5 line remains more finely balanced.

Deportivo Saprissa have won all of their last five matches, while Inter San Carlos have recorded only two victories over the same period and averaged 1.0 goals per match compared with their opponents’ 2.4. The visitors have been particularly strong starters: they led at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.4 first-half goals, compared with 40% and 0.6 goals respectively for the hosts. Saprissa have yet to concede in the season data, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their matches, with an average opposition xG of just 0.55; Inter have an attacking xG of 1.90, but have scored significantly less in their last five matches. After the break, the visitors still look more stable, averaging 1.0 goal and avoiding defeat in any second half across their last five fixtures. The strongest scenario is therefore a Saprissa lead at half-time followed by them maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: HT/FT 1/1.