Inter Turku vs VPS: match statistics

Inter Turku sit 2nd, while VPS are sixth, and the hosts have been particularly strong at home: they concede just 0.55 goals per match on average and keep a clean sheet in 55% of games. Inter’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with an average home xG of 1.84 compared with VPS’s 1.46 away from home, while also allowing a lower xG to their opponents: 0.86 versus 1.37. VPS do, however, arrive in better short-term form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and scoring 6 goals in that run, compared with Inter’s 4. Despite this upturn for the visitors, VPS lose 36% of their away matches, while Inter have suffered defeat in only 9% of home games, which slightly shifts the prediction in favour of the hosts. However, Inter’s high home draw rate of 45% leaves a significant probability of the points being shared.

The BTTS signal is moderately weaker than neutral: over the course of the season, both teams have recorded this outcome in 50% and 55% of their matches, respectively, but over their last five games, the rate has fallen to 40% for both. During this period, Inter Turku scored only 0.8 goals per match, while VPS averaged 1.2, which reduces confidence that both teams will find the net. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their matches, compared with 27% for VPS, so there is a realistic chance that one side will fail to score. Although the average xG from the last five appearances is similar at 1.37 and 1.35, the league BTTS average is only 49%, making the outcome in which at least one team fails to score more likely.

The season profiles of both teams clearly support a limited number of goals: Inter Turku have recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 67% of their matches, while VPS have done so in as many as 82%. The 2.5-goal line was exceeded in only 42% of the home team’s matches and 36% of the away team’s matches, compared with a league average of 46%. Inter Turku concede an average of 0.92 goals per match, while VPS score an average of 1.00, limiting the visitors’ scoring potential. The last five matches also do not point to an open game, as both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their matches. With an estimated 2.35 goals, there is a clear safety margin for Under 3.5 goals, making it the strongest pick.

Inter Turku led at half-time in 50% of their matches, while VPS were level at the break in as many as 45% of games and led in only 27%. The hosts average 0.92 goals scored and 0.50 conceded before half-time, whereas VPS score just 0.55 goals in this phase and concede 0.73. Across the season, Inter Turku have a higher average number of goals scored, 1.58 compared with 1.00, as well as a better points record: 1.75 points per match compared with 1.36. VPS’s recent form is stronger, with 3 wins in their last 5 appearances, so the probabilities of draw and away variants have been increased significantly. However, Inter’s first-half advantage and home-field edge still provide the strongest support for an HT/FT scenario in which they lead at the break and secure the full-time win.