Inter vs Alianza: match statistics

Alianza are clearly more effective away from home: they average 3 goals per match, with 6 shots on target and a 27% conversion rate. In their only home match so far, Inter drew 0:0, failed to score despite averaging 6 shots, and recorded an xG of just 1.10. The visitors create higher-quality chances, posting an xG of 1.63 compared with Inter’s 1.10, while also limiting opponents to an xG of 1.25, compared with 2.05 allowed by the hosts. In their last five matches, Alianza have won 3 times and scored 7 goals, whereas Inter have recorded just 1 victory and 4 goals. The limited sample of home and away matches increases the risk of a draw, but the visitors’ advantage in chance creation, finishing efficiency and recent form points to an Alianza victory.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as Inter have averaged just 0.8 goals over their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 40% of their games. Alianza are considerably more effective in attack, averaging 1.4 goals across their last five outings and scoring 3.0 goals per match in the available season sample. However, the visitors have conceded an average of 1.2 goals in their last five matches, while Inter have created decent chances worth 1.61 xG, keeping a realistic possibility of a home goal alive. Nevertheless, Inter’s weaker finishing and tally of just 4 goals in five matches suggest that the more likely outcome is one in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

The home side’s data from their last five matches shows 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, although they created chances worth an average of 1.61 xG. Alianza scored 1.4 goals per match during this period, while Inter’s defence allowed opponents 1.66 xG, strengthening the case for an away goal. In turn, Alianza conceded an average of 1.2 goals and allowed their opponents 1.67 xG, meaning the hosts should also pose a genuine attacking threat. In the last five matches of both teams, the Over 2.5 goals line landed in 40% and 60% of cases respectively, so Over 2.5 does not yet have a clear edge. The strongest signal is Over 1.5: a forecast of 2.36 goals, combined with both sides’ attacking and defensive xG metrics, points to a high probability of at least two goals.

Alianza has a clearly stronger seasonal signal: they have won 100% of their matches so far, score an average of 3.0 goals, and were already leading at the break in 100% of those games, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time. In their last five appearances, the visitors have won three matches, compared with just one for Inter, while their average goal tally stands at 1.4 versus 0.8 for the hosts. The difference is particularly evident before the break: Inter score just 0.2 goals on average and were behind at half-time in 40% of their last five matches, whereas Alianza score 0.8 goals in this phase. Inter have indeed drawn three of their last five matches and concede only 0.2 goals on average after the break, so a draw at half-time remains a realistic alternative. However, the strongest HT/FT scenario is still Alianza leading at the break and going on to win.