Inverness CT vs Dunfermline Athletic: match statistics

Inverness CT have scored 9 goals and conceded only 2 in their last 5 matches (avg. 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded per game) and have won 4 of those 5 fixtures, yielding 2.6 points per game over that period. Dunfermline Athletic have 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game) but have conceded 7 goals (1.4 per game) and hold a 3-0-2 record in the same span, translating to 1.8 points per game. The hosts’ key advantage is their defence — the concession differential is 2 vs 7 goals (0.4 vs 1.4 per game), which suggests Inverness limits opponent opportunities far more effectively. Additionally, a home run of 4 wins and the higher PPG (2.6 vs 1.8) indicate better form and stability for the hosts, whereas Dunfermline, despite scoring more, are more prone to defensive errors. Based on these specific numbers, I predict a home win.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Inverness scored 9 goals (1.8 per match) and conceded only 2 (0.4 per match), while Dunfermline recorded 11 goals (2.2 per match) and conceded 7 (1.4 per match). Both teams had BTTS at 40% in the last 5 fixtures, i.e. 2 of 5 matches saw goals from both sides. In xG terms Dunfermline generates 1.85 xG on average and Inverness allows 0.79 xG, whereas Inverness has 1.54 xG and Dunfermline concedes 0.93 xG — this suggests that despite Dunfermline’s higher attacking potential, Inverness’s defense effectively limits the quality of opponents’ chances. Inverness form ('wdwww') is better than Dunfermline ('llwww') and the fact the hosts conceded only 2 goals in 5 matches argues for a lower probability of a Goal/Goal outcome. Based on this I rate 60% for 'No' (No BTTS) and 40% for 'Yes', selecting 'No' as the more likely scenario.

Based on the last 5 matches, Inverness averaged 1.8 goals scored and conceded 0.4, while Dunfermline averaged 2.2 goals scored and conceded 1.4 — together 4.0 goals form-wise (1.8+2.2). Looking at xG: Inverness has 1.54 xG per match and opponents generate 0.93 xG against them; Dunfermline has 1.85 xG and Inverness concedes 0.79 xG, which yields a forecast of 1.24 xG for the home side and 1.32 xG for the away side (total 2.56). Since the forecast 2.56 significantly exceeds the 1.5 line and both teams have high goal output (Inverness 9 goals in 5, Dunfermline 11 goals), the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — I rate it at roughly 93% probability. The 2.5 line gives a moderate edge to Over (forecast 2.56 -> Over 2.5 ~62%); additionally Dunfermline have 80% of recent 5 matches over 2.5, which increases the likelihood. The 3.5 line is unlikely (Over ~28%), because despite Dunfermline’s attacking profile Inverness’s low goals conceded (0.4) reduces the chance of 4+ goals.

Inverness CT has clearly better form over the last five matches: 4 wins and 1 draw (80% wins) with an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, while Dunfermline have 3 wins and 2 losses (60% wins) averaging 2.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. The home side led at the break in 3 of 5 games (60%) and average 1.0 goal before halftime with 0.4 conceded, whereas the visitors led at the break in 2 of 5 (40%) with 1.0 goal before halftime and 0.6 conceded, giving Inverness the advantage in first halves. In second halves Inverness conceded no goals in this run (0.0 conceded on average), while Dunfermline score 1.2 and concede 0.8 on average, which reduces the visitors’ prospects of a full-time turnaround. Additionally, the hosts had 5 of 5 matches with at least one goal by halftime (100%) and average 2.6 points in this sequence, so the most likely scenario is Inverness leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1), hence the selection with the highest assigned probability at 39%.