Inverness CT vs Partick Thistle: match statistics

Partick Thistle lead the table and have won both of their league matches so far, while Inverness have recorded two draws, although the hosts’ home data is based on a very small sample. Inverness have created significantly more high-quality chances at home, averaging 2.14 xG compared with Partick’s 1.47, and they also register 17 shots per match, including 8 on target. However, the hosts’ main issue is their finishing: despite these numbers, they have yet to score at home and have failed to find the net in 100% of their home matches. The visitors have shown solid control, averaging 66% possession, while their defence has limited opponents to just 0.73 xG away from home. Both teams have kept clean sheets in their matches so far in the respective roles, which makes a low-scoring draw the most likely outcome.

The BTTS pick is not strongly supported by the seasonal data: both Inverness CT and Partick Thistle have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their matches so far, while BTTS stands at 0% for both teams. The league profile also points to tight, low-scoring games, with an average of just 1.6 goals, BTTS occurring in 30% of matches, and clean sheets recorded in 90%. In their last five matches, Inverness have averaged only 0.8 goals, with BTTS at 20%, increasing the risk that the hosts will fail to score. Partick Thistle have a better recent attacking record, averaging 1.4 goals and an xG of 1.64 per match, but Inverness’s defence has allowed an average xG of just 0.78, so the visitors are not guaranteed to find the net either. Therefore, the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is clearly more likely than both teams scoring.

League data points to a very low-scoring environment: the average is just 1.6 goals per match, with only 10% of games going Over 2.5 goals. In their last five matches, Inverness averaged 0.8 goals scored and Partick 1.4, with a combined goals tally of 4:7. Both teams maintain solid defensive metrics, as their average xG conceded stands at 0.78 and 0.91, respectively. Recent form also supports a cautious scenario: Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of the hosts’ last matches and 40% of the visitors’ games. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as losing this bet requires at least four goals, while the numbers clearly favour a result in the 1–3 goals range.

A Half-Time/Full-Time draw/Partick Thistle win (X/2) is the most likely outcome, as Inverness have been level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, compared with just 20% for Partick. During this period, the hosts conceded only 0.2 goals per match before half-time, while the visitors scored 0.8 first-half goals, which points to an even and rather cautious opening. After the break, the picture is more favourable for Partick: they average 0.6 goals, while Inverness concede as many as 1.0 goals per second half. The visitors also have a higher season-long average xG, 1.47 compared with 1.28, and take more shots, 12 versus 9. Although both teams have won 40% of their last five matches, Inverness’s weaker post-half-time defence and Partick’s superior record in this phase of the match point towards an X/2 scenario.