Ipswich Town vs Liverpool: match statistics

Liverpool have a clear advantage in chance creation away from home: they average 27 shots and 7 on target per match, with an xG of 2.66, while Ipswich average 10 shots, 3 on target and an xG of 1.10. However, the hosts are effective at home, scoring an average of 2 goals with a 20% conversion rate, and have netted 11 goals in their last five matches. Ipswich allow opponents an xG of 1.38, while Liverpool concede an average of 2 goals away from home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, making a goal for the hosts a realistic scenario. The visitors dominate possession, averaging 61% compared with Ipswich’s 38%, but their 7% shot conversion rate and two draws in two away matches increase the risk of a closely contested game. Nevertheless, Liverpool’s superior chance quality gives them the best chance of securing the win.

The signal for goals from both sides is very clear: Ipswich and Liverpool have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far this season, and neither team has kept a clean sheet yet. In their last five games, the hosts have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Liverpool have scored 1.6 and allowed opponents 1.4 goals on average. Liverpool are creating particularly many chances, with an average xG of 2.66 for the season and 2.00 in their last five matches, while Ipswich have an xG of 1.68. Ipswich’s defence has recently allowed opponents an average xG of 1.85, which significantly strengthens the visitors’ chances of scoring, while Liverpool’s lack of clean sheets gives the hosts a realistic route to goal. Ipswich’s 80% BTTS rate and Liverpool’s 60% rate in their last five matches still exceed the league average of 53%, making a scenario in which both teams score more likely. In betting terms, this supports BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal), rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not automatically a 0:0 result or a match in which neither side scores.

Liverpool are generating very strong attacking potential, with an average xG of 2.66, along with 7 shots on target and 27 attempts per match, while Ipswich have allowed opponents an average of 1.85 xG over their last five fixtures. The hosts also have a strong case to score: they have averaged 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while Liverpool have conceded an average of 1.4 goals during that period. In the available part of the season, both teams have scored and conceded at least one goal in 100% of their matches, while Ipswich have recorded Over 2.5 goals in each of their last five appearances. The predicted total of 3.20 goals is well above the 1.5 line, making Over 1.5 the strongest selection, even though the 2.5 and 3.5 lines already carry greater volatility. Further support comes from the league average of 3.21 goals per match, which is virtually in line with the expected total for this fixture.

Ipswich are in clearly better current form: they have won three of their last five matches and averaged 2.2 goals per game, while Liverpool have won only once, scoring 1.6 goals per match. The hosts have more often secured a favourable result at half-time, drawing at the break in 60% of their last five matches and leading in 20%, whereas Liverpool went into half-time trailing in as many as 40% of cases. Ipswich also establish a more stable advantage before the break, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, compared with the visitors’ 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded. After the interval, the hosts continue to average 1.2 goals per match, while Liverpool have scored no more than 0.8 in their last five appearances, strengthening the scenario of Ipswich leading at the break and maintaining their winning result. Although Liverpool generate a higher xG, 2.66 compared with 1.68, their poorer results and just a 20% win rate in their last five matches support the 1/1 pick.