Iraklis Thessaloniki vs Atromitos: match statistics

Iraklis Thessaloniki sit higher in 8th place and have collected 4 points from their first three matches, while Atromitos are 11th with just one point and still without a win. The hosts have scored 3 goals so far, and their last five matches produced 5 goals and 7 points, matching Atromitos’s tally over the same period. However, the visitors have a clear problem away from home. Atromitos lost their only away match to date, failed to score, managed an average of just 1 shot on target from 8 attempts, and recorded only 31% possession. Particularly concerning for the visitors is their average away xG conceded of 2.97, compared with just 0.80 xG generated in attack. Iraklis have also conceded 8 goals in their last five matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome, but home advantage and Atromitos’s attacking weakness favour the hosts.

BTTS - No is the stronger signal because Atromitos have averaged no goals scored in the season data, failed to score in 100% of their matches, and manage just 1 shot on target per game. The visitors also create few chances, with an average xG of 0.80 and 8 shots, while Iraklis generate 1.36 xG and 13 attempts. Atromitos’ current form is better, as they have averaged 1.2 goals in their last five matches and BTTS landed in 60% of those games, but the season sample still clearly points to a finishing problem. Iraklis concede an average of 1.5 goals, but the visitors have scored only 2 goals so far, increasing the risk that Atromitos will be the team to draw a blank. BTTS - No is also consistent with the league profile, where both teams score in only 45% of matches.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals, as both teams have seen 100% of their league matches finish with a maximum of three goals so far. In their last five outings, each team went Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of matches, with an average of 2.6 goals in Iraklis matches and 2.2 in Atromitos matches. Atromitos have shown very limited attacking output at this stage of the competition: they have yet to score, average just 1.0 shot on target, and generate an xG of 0.80. Iraklis should have more opportunities, as their average xG stands at 1.36, while their opponents allow 2.97 xG. However, the projected total of 2.10 goals still clearly supports a low-scoring game and provides a strong cushion for the 3.5-goal line.

Iraklis have the clearer attacking potential: their average xG is 1.36, compared with just 0.80 for Atromitos, while the visitors allow opponents as much as 2.97 xG per match. The hosts average 13 shots per game, compared with 8 for Atromitos, and register 2.5 shots on target per match, while the visitors manage just 1.0. In their matches played at home so far, Iraklis have held a lead at the break on 50% of occasions and have scored an average of 1.0 goals before half-time, whereas Atromitos have yet to score in the first half. Atromitos have lost both of their away matches to date without scoring, and Iraklis should be able to capitalise on home advantage and their opponents’ defensive weakness. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which the hosts take the lead before half-time and maintain it until the final whistle: 1/1.