Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva: match statistics

Both teams have won just 1 of their last 5 matches and suffered 4 defeats apiece, so neither enters this fixture in convincing form. Hapoel Petah Tikva are nevertheless 6th in the table, while Ironi Tiberias sit only 10th, giving the visitors the edge in terms of their current league position. The hosts have conceded as many as 12 goals in their last five matches—an average of 2.4 per game—compared with Hapoel’s 8, which points to Ironi’s significantly weaker defensive organisation. The visitors have scored just 3 goals during this period, fewer than the hosts’ 5, but their stronger defence could prove decisive in securing a narrow away win. The low scoring output of both teams also increases the likelihood of a tight, low-scoring encounter.

The data from the last five matches presents a mixed picture: Ironi Tiberias had BTTS in 60% of their games, while Hapoel Petah Tikva recorded it in only 40%. The visitors scored just 0.6 goals per match—3 goals in five appearances—which significantly increases the risk that they will fail to find the net. Ironi did concede as many as 2.4 goals per game, and Hapoel 1.6, but the visitors’ attacking potential remains limited despite an xG of 1.11. The hosts averaged 1.0 goal and generated an xG of 1.36, so a single goal from Ironi is more likely than an effective exchange of goals. BTTS - No therefore has a slight edge, as at least one team—primarily Hapoel Petah Tikva—faces a genuine risk of finishing the match without scoring.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the assessment is based on the last five matches played by both teams. During this period, Ironi Tiberias conceded as many as 2.4 goals per game, while Hapoel Petah Tikva scored only 0.6 goals per match, limiting the visitors’ attacking potential. The hosts averaged 1.0 goal, with an xG of 1.36, whereas the visitors allowed opponents an xG of 1.70. Although 80% of Ironi Tiberias’ recent matches went Over 2.5 goals, this occurred in only 40% of the visitors’ games. The projected total of 2.30 goals points primarily towards Under 3.5 goals, as reaching four goals would require a significantly stronger attacking contribution from Hapoel Petah Tikva.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hapoel Petah Tikva win, as the visitors were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, compared with just 40% for the hosts. Ironi Tiberias conceded an average of 1.2 goals before the break and were trailing at half-time in 60% of their recent matches, while Hapoel conceded just 0.2 goals per game during this period. After the interval, both teams played more open matches: each of their last five games featured at least one second-half goal. Ironi’s defence remains clearly weaker over the course of the full match, with an average of 2.4 goals conceded in their last five appearances compared with 1.6 for Hapoel. Both teams won only one of those five matches, making a half-time draw more credible than an early, one-sided lead; however, the hosts’ weaker defence increases the visitors’ chances of completing the turnaround after the break.