Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey: match statistics
Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Irtysh played Yelimay Semey in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Irtysh: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match. Yelimay Semey: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Irtysh scores 0.89 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Yelimay Semey scores 1.33 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.03 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Irtysh 56%, Yelimay Semey 56%. Over 2.5: Irtysh 44%, Yelimay Semey 33%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
Yelimay Semey has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.27. Irtysh: 10.0 shots per match, Yelimay Semey: 14.7.
Match halves
Irtysh: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.56. Yelimay Semey: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Irtysh: 61-75 (3 goals). Yelimay Semey: 76-90+ (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.03 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The away side (Yelimay Semey) are the clear favourites: they sit 6th versus Irtysh’s 14th and have a season record of 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses compared to the hosts’ 1-3-5. The visitors hold the edge in chance creation and efficiency — Yelimay averages 13.4 shots per match with 4.4 on target and a 12% conversion rate, versus the hosts’ 9.0 shots, 3.0 on target and 8% conversion, translating to 1.6 goals per away game compared to Irtysh’s 0.75 goals at home. xG also favours the visitors (avg away xG 1.53 vs home xG 1.15), with xG against 1.21 for Yelimay and 1.30 for Irtysh, so the visitors produce higher-value chances despite similar average concessions (around 1.0 goal per match). In the short term Irtysh are in crisis — 5 defeats in their last 5, 0 points and a 2-7 goal record over those matches, while Yelimay have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 (5-8) and PPG 0.4. Therefore, despite form issues, the visitors’ superior offensive efficiency gives them a clear advantage.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal metrics indicate a moderate lean toward a both teams to score scenario: Irtysh has BTTS 50%, Yelimay 60%, with the league average at 48%. Yelimay averages 1.6 goals per match versus Irtysh 1.0, while xG is 1.74 for Irtysh and 1.53 for Yelimay — both sides create chances, but Irtysh suffer low finishing efficiency (conversion rate 6% vs 12% for Yelimay). In the last 5 matches Irtysh averaged 0.4 scored and 1.4 conceded (2 scored, 7 conceded), and Yelimay 1.0 and 1.6 (5 scored, 8 conceded), indicating both teams have recently been prone to conceding. Additionally, clean sheets are only 25% (Irtysh) and 20% (Yelimay), and average shots on target 4.25 vs 4.4 suggest tangible scoring opportunities for both sides, so the BTTS scenario is reinforced. Considering these figures and recent form, I tip BTTS = Yes with a probability of 62% (38% against No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Irtysh (xG_for 1.74 vs opponent xG_against 1.21) and 1.35 for Yelimay Semey (xG_for 1.53 vs opponent xG_against 1.17), totaling 2.83 goals. A Poisson model on summed xG=2.83 yields probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈77%, Over 2.5 ≈54% and Over 3.5 ≈31%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Match stats confirm offensive dynamics: Irtysh averages 16.25 shots (4.25 on target) with a 6% conversion rate and 8 goals this season; Yelimay averages 13.4 shots (4.4 on target) with a 12% conversion rate and 12 goals. Both teams have scored in 50% and 60% of their matches respectively. Season percentages support this — Over 1.5 occurred in 50% of Irtysh’s matches and 60% of Yelimay’s, while the league goals average is 2.05 — all of which increases the probability of at least 2 goals. Based on this, I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the most reliable option.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the 1/2 scenario (home team leading at half-time, away team winning final) because the home side lead at the break in 50% of matches and on average score 0.75 goals by half-time versus 0.4 for the visitors. The away team, however, are stronger after the break: they score on average 1.2 goals in the second half and have as many as 5 goals in minutes 76–90, giving them an advantage in late stages. Seasonal goal output favors the away side 1.6 vs 1.0 and the away win percentage is higher at 40% vs 25%, which increases the likelihood of a comeback. Although the home team generate slightly more xG (1.74 vs 1.53), their shot conversion is low (6% versus 12% for the visitors), and additionally the home team have lost their last five matches while the away team have two draws in their last five, making the scenario of the hosts leading at the break and the visitors winning at full-time the most justified.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Irtysh | Yelimay Semey | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Yelimay Semey is 49% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - Irtysh · 1.33 goals / match - Yelimay Semey
Yelimay Semey is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Irtysh · 1 goals / match - Yelimay Semey
Irtysh scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Yelimay Semey keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Yelimay Semey scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Irtysh keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Irtysh
Over / Under - Yelimay Semey
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Yelimay Semey is 67% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Irtysh · 1.67 pts / match - Yelimay Semey
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Irtysh - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 11%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Yelimay Semey - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 33%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Irtysh
Yelimay Semey
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Irtysh | Liga | Yelimay Semey | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.22 | 2.03 | ▲ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 44% | 33% | • 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 33% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | • 56% | 57% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | • 67% | 68% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Irtysh 2:2 Yelimay Semey. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey?
Irtysh score 0.89 goals per game on average and Yelimay Semey 1.33. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.03 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Irtysh's matches and 56% of Yelimay Semey's.
What form are Irtysh and Yelimay Semey in?
Over the last 5 games Irtysh have a 0-0-5 record (0.00 points per game) and Yelimay Semey 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Irtysh vs Yelimay Semey: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.