Isidro Metapán vs Cacahuatique: match statistics

Both teams have 51 goals this season, suggesting an evenly matched contest, but the statistics reveal differences in playing profiles. Isidro Metapán at home averages 10.2 shots (5.05 on target), 53% possession, scores 1.2 goals and concedes 1.15 per match, and records xG 1.44 vs xG-against 1.10, indicating better chance creation and a solid defense. Cacahuatique away averages 8.38 shots (4.52 on target), scores 1.38 goals and concedes 1.19, but posts a higher shot conversion rate 16% versus the home side’s 12% and is less likely to be shut out (FTS 19% vs 35%), and in the last 5 matches has scored 8 goals (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Over the last 5 rounds the visitors average 1.4 points per match versus 1.2 for the hosts, giving them a slight form edge, however the xG and shot volume advantage favor Isidro. Considering these figures, I forecast a narrow home win (prediction "1").

Seasonal BTTS rates are 57% for Isidro Metapán and 52% for Cacahuatique versus a league average of 54%, providing a baseline edge for BTTS - Yes. Hosts concede 1.52 goals per match on average, while visitors score 1.38 for the season and 1.6 in the last 5 games, indicating Cacahuatique’s recent attacking efficiency against Metapán’s weaker defense. xG reads 1.53 for Metapán and 1.31 for Cacahuatique (combined ~2.84 xG), with xG against at 1.47 and 1.57 respectively, suggesting both sides create scoring opportunities. Additionally, visitors have a higher shot conversion rate at 16% versus hosts' 11% and more shots on target (4.52 vs 4.1), while clean sheets stand at 29% and 33%, so both teams possess goal-scoring potential and vulnerability to conceding. Therefore I prefer BTTS = "Yes" with a 65% probability.

I expect 1.55 goals for Isidro Metapán and 1.39 for Cacahuatique, totaling 2.94 goals in the match. Based on xG: Isidro has xG 1.53 while Cacahuatique concedes 1.57 xG (yielding ~1.55 for the home side); Cacahuatique has xG 1.31 against Isidro conceding 1.47 xG (yielding ~1.39 for the away side). Seasonal stats confirm a propensity for goals — Over 1.5 occurred in 76% of Isidro’s matches and 71% of Cacahuatique’s, and Over 2.5 in 52% and 62% respectively, which increases the likelihood of at least three goals. Both teams also have a high share of matches with Both Teams To Score: 57% for the home team and 52% for the away, and the visitors average 4.52 shots on target converting 16% of attempts versus Isidro’s 4.1 SOT and 11% conversion, which raises the odds of goals from both sides. Consequently I pick Over 2.5 as the strongest signal: an expected total of 2.94 and seasonal Over 2.5 rates (52%/62%) imply roughly a 64% chance of Over 2.5 in this analysis.

Half-time data shows an away advantage: Cacahuatique led at the break in 10 of 21 matches (48%), while Isidro Metapán led only in 3 of 21 (14%). Full-time results also favor the visitors — Cacahuatique won 10 of 21 fixtures (48%) with an average points per game of 1.57 versus 0.81 for the home side. The visitors are also more efficient in shots and conversion: 4.52 shots on target and a 16% conversion rate versus 4.1 and 11% for Metapán; at half-time they average 0.81 goals versus 0.52 for the hosts and concede only 0.24. Although the home xG is 1.53 compared with 1.31 for the visitors, the lower number of goals conceded by the visitors at the break and their higher finishing efficiency suggest the most likely scenario is Cacahuatique leading at the break and the visitors winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/2). Alternatively, X/2 and X/X are worth considering given the frequency of half-time draws (HT: 14% home lead, 38% draw, 48% away lead).