Isidro Metapán vs INCA-Aruba: match statistics

Isidro Metapán have a perfect home record, winning all 3 of their matches so far, while INCA-Aruba have lost all 3 away games. The hosts average 2.00 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score only 0.33 goals away from home and concede 2.67. Metapán’s superiority is also evident in their quality of play: the hosts’ average xG stands at 1.54, while opponents allow an average xG of 1.88. INCA-Aruba have failed to win any of their 7 matches this season, have scored just 2 goals in their last five games, and have failed to score in 67% of their away fixtures. Metapán should also control possession, averaging 53% compared with the visitors’ 41%, which strongly points towards a comfortable home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as INCA-Aruba score an average of just 0.33 goals per match, and only 0.4 goals across their last 5 fixtures. The visitors failed to score in 67% of matches, while Metapán kept a clean sheet in 25% of appearances and conceded just 1.0 goal per game over their last five matches. BTTS occurred in only 33% of the visitors’ games this season, while the rate for both teams over their last five league rounds stood at 40%, below the league figure of 49%. INCA-Aruba’s defence is highly vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.67 goals, so the hosts have favourable conditions to score. However, their low 5% scoring efficiency and season average of 0.5 goals limit confidence in a Goal/Goal scenario. The most likely outcome is therefore one in which at least one team—primarily the visitors—fails to score.

Metapán have averaged 1.0 goals scored in their last 5 matches, while INCA-Aruba have managed just 0.4, with the visitors failing to score in 67% of their matches this season. Both teams have shown poor finishing efficiency: the hosts convert 5% of their shots into goals, while the visitors convert 4%, despite recording average xG figures of 1.60 and 1.18 respectively across their last five appearances. INCA-Aruba’s defense is clearly vulnerable, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last five matches, giving Metapán a realistic chance of scoring 1-2 goals. At the same time, neither team has scored at least two goals in a single match this season, while Over 3.5 goals has landed in only 50% of the hosts’ matches and 33% of the visitors’ games. The strongest selection is therefore Under 3.5 goals, as the visitors’ weak attack should reduce the risk of an open, four-goal game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Isidro Metapán win at full-time, as neither team averaged even one goal before the break, while the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches and the visitors in 67%. In their last five matches, INCA-Aruba failed to score in the first half, recording no goal before the break in 100% of those appearances. After half-time, Metapán have shown considerably better form: over their last five matches, they averaged 0.8 goals scored, conceded only 0.6, and won the second half in 40% of cases, while their opponents lost it in 60%. The hosts also average 1.4 points per match across their last five appearances, compared with 0.4 for the visitors, while INCA-Aruba concede an average of 1.6 goals after the break, favouring a late turnaround in the hosts’ favour.