Ismaily SC vs Coca-Cola: match statistics

The favorite appears to be Coca-Cola (13th vs 21st Ismaily), supported by the numbers: Coca-Cola have scored 20 goals this season vs Ismaily’s 12 and post a higher xG per match — 1.12 vs the home side’s 1.03. Defensively the visitors are stronger: they concede 1.17 goals on average away, while Ismaily concede 1.45 at home, and the home loss rate is as high as 64%. Coca-Cola create more chances (9.17 average shots away) but convert them less efficiently (7% conversion and 58% of away matches without a goal), whereas Ismaily attempt fewer shots (7.82) but have a higher conversion (10%) and 45% of matches without a goal, which increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game. In the last 5 matches Coca-Cola recorded 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, averaging 0.8 points per match, while Ismaily have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, averaging 0.6 points per match; combined with the worse goal difference for the hosts (-7 vs -6 for the visitors) this points toward a narrow away victory. Therefore I forecast a Coca-Cola win, but with a high probability of a draw in a low-scoring game — estimated probabilities: away win 50%, draw 30%, home win 20%.

Ismaily at home average 0.92 goals scored and concede 1.08, Coca-Cola average 0.67 scored and 1.17 conceded, so both teams have low goals-per-game. xG indicates they create chances (xG 1.29 for Ismaily vs 1.12 for Coca-Cola) but shot conversion is poor: 8% and 7%, so the likelihood of turning xG into goals is limited. Season signals are mixed — BTTS for the home side 62% vs 42% for the away — however in the last 5 matches BTTS dropped to 20% (Ismaily) and 40% (Coca-Cola), which is a strong negative trend for both teams. Additionally the hosts have 38% clean sheets this season, and the league features a high share of clean-sheet matches (69%), therefore given the low finishing I rate this as 60% for "No" (No Goal) and 40% for "Yes" (BTTS - Yes).

xG-based model: Ismaily has xG_for 1.29, Coca‑Cola xG_against 1.37, yielding an expected 1.33 goals for the home side; Coca‑Cola has xG_for 1.12 and Ismaily xG_against 1.18, yielding 1.15 for the away side, totaling 2.48 expected goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.48 indicates roughly a 71% probability of Over 1.5 goals, 45% for Over 2.5 and 24% for Over 3.5. Seasonal rates confirm a tendency toward at least two goals: Over1.5 is 62% (Ismaily) and 67% (Coca‑Cola), average ≈65%, while Over2.5 is 38%/33% (avg. ≈35%) and Over3.5 23%/0% (avg. ≈12%). Additionally, both teams have a high share of matches with at least one goal (over 0.5 goals: 77% vs 83%) and in the last 5 matches they average 1.0 (Ismaily) and 2.0 (Coca‑Cola) goals scored and 3.0 and 4.0 conceded respectively, which increases the likelihood of multiple goals. Therefore the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is Over 1.5 (recommendation: back Over at line 1.5), since xG (2.48), the Poisson distribution (~71%) and seasonal percentages (~65% Over1.5) favor this option.

Both teams very frequently draw at half-time: the home side drew in 62% of matches, the away side in 58%, yielding around a 60% chance of a draw after 45 minutes. This is supported by the high proportion of clean sheets at the break – 77% for the hosts and 83% for the visitors – and a low average of first-half goals: 0.46 (Ismaily) and 0.58 (Coca-Cola). A draw at full-time is also significantly likely: in the hosts’ last five matches a draw occurred in 60% of cases, for the visitors in 80%, and xG of 1.29 versus 1.12 along with shots on target 3.15 vs 2.75 indicate an even contest and a typical final score of 1-1. Therefore the most reliable HT/FT signal is X/X (draw at half-time and draw at full-time) with a probability estimate of 32%, with alternative scenarios X/2 (15%) and X/1 (12%).