İstanbul Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa: match statistics

The favourites in this fixture are the home side — İstanbul Başakşehir sit 5th versus Kasımpaşa in 13th, and across the season the hosts have scored 48 and conceded 31 compared to the visitors’ 29 scored and 41 conceded, providing a clear advantage in goal difference. At home Başakşehir average 12.93 shots and 4.87 on target per match and generate xG 1.48, while Kasımpaşa as visitors manage only 7.73 shots, 2.2 on target and xG 0.89, indicating significantly better quality chances for the hosts. Defensively the hosts also perform better — at home they concede 1.13 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 33% of matches, whereas the visitors concede 1.53 goals away and have 20% clean sheets. By contrast the visitors show higher recent form over the last five games: Kasımpaşa have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 8 goals scored and an average of 2.0 points per game, whereas Başakşehir in their last 5 have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with 4 goals and 1.2 points per game. Considering the home advantage in chance creation (xG +0.59 and nearly double the on-target shots) and the superior goal record, I forecast a home win, although I expect a competitive contest.

Data present mixed signals: Kasımpaşa has a seasonal BTTS 67% (40% in last 5), while İstanbul Başakşehir has a seasonal BTTS 40% (only 20% in last 5), indicating clear asymmetry. Looking at offense and defense, Başakşehir scores on average 0.87 goals per game (xG_for 1.26) and concedes 1.20, while Kasımpaşa scores 1.07 (xG_for 0.89) and concedes 1.53 (xG_against 1.59); the home side generates more shots (11.73) and shots on target (3.13) than the visitors (7.73 and 2.20), but the visitors have a higher conversion rate 14% vs 7%. With a simple Poisson model seasonal lambdas are about 1.20 for the home team and 1.14 for the away, yielding seasonal probabilities of scoring at least 1 goal ~70% and ~68%; after accounting for form over the last 5 matches (lambda ≈0.90 and ≈1.20) the combined estimates are ≈65.7% for the home team and ≈68.7% for the away. The product of these gives an estimated BTTS around 45%, and additionally Başakşehir has a seasonal clean sheet rate 33% and concedes on average 0.8 goals in the last 5 matches, which slightly favors a No Goal scenario. Therefore I recommend No (55%) over Yes (45%).

After aggregating xG data, expected goals are around 2.43: I calculate ~1.43 for Başakşehir (attack xG 1.26 vs opponent xG conceded by Kasımpaşa 1.59), and ~1.00 for Kasımpaşa (attack xG 0.89 vs opponent xG conceded by Başakşehir 1.12). Historically the 1.5 line was exceeded in 60% of home matches and 80% of away matches, and in the last 5 fixtures the combined goals average was about 2.4 (home 0.8, away 1.6), which strongly supports Over 1.5. The 2.5 line is less clear: seasonal Over 2.5 rates are 27% for homes and 60% for aways (avg ~44%), and the projected xG of 2.43 is slightly below the threshold, so I give a small edge to Under 2.5. Additionally, hosts average 3.13 shots on target per match versus 2.2 for visitors and have a lower conversion rate (7% vs 14%), which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring performance from the home side. As a result, the strongest signal from the data is to back Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is a half-time draw and an away win (X/2), because the home side were level at the break in 47% of their seasonal matches and in as many as 80% of their last 5 games, while the visitors led at the break in 40% of their last 5 fixtures. Kasımpaşa has the better finishing form – winning 60% of their last 5 matches (3 of 5) and averaging 1.6 goals in those games versus the hosts’ 0.8, giving them the advantage for the full-time result. Although Başakşehir generates higher home xG (1.26 vs 0.89) and produces more shots (11.73 vs 7.73), their efficiency is much lower (7% conversion versus 14% for the visitors), so the chances they create are less well converted. The visitors scored 6 goals in the first 45 minutes across their last 5 games compared to 3 for the hosts, and seasonally they have a higher probability of both-teams-to-score matches (BTTS 67% vs 40%), which increases the likelihood that Kasımpaşa will turn the game around after the break. Therefore I assign X/2 the highest probability at 30%, with a moderate probability of a draw at full-time (X/X) of 15% and a lower chance of the home side leading at the break and winning (1/1) at 12%.