İstanbul Başakşehir vs Samsunspor: match statistics

İstanbul Başakşehir holds a clear advantage in seasonal metrics: 53 goals scored versus Samsunspor’s 43, and at home they average 1.88 goals and xG 1.50 per match. The hosts create more chances — 5.06 shots on target and 13.00 total shots per home match compared to the visitors’ 3.75/11.88 — and have a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 13%). Defensively the hosts look stronger: they concede 1.06 goals per home game and keep a clean sheet in 38% of matches, while Samsunspor concedes 1.56 goals away and records only 19% clean sheets. At the same time the visitors are in excellent recent form over the last 5 matches: 4 wins and 1 draw, 11 goals scored and an average of 2.6 points per game, giving them a realistic chance of an upset. Considering the hosts’ xG advantage (1.50 vs 1.31), superior home defence and dominance in shot volume, I forecast a home win, although a draw or an away victory remain possible given Samsunspor’s form.

I assign a higher probability to BTTS 'Yes' (72%) because both teams have high BTTS rates this season: İstanbul Başakşehir 56% and Samsunspor 75%, versus a league average of 55%. xG analysis shows similar signals: the home side posts xG 1.53 against opponents’ xG conceded 1.45, while the visitors have xG 1.31 against the homes’ xG conceded 1.04 — the pairs 1.53 vs 1.45 and 1.31 vs 1.04 indicate scoring opportunities for both sides. In the last 5 matches Samsunspor has BTTS 80% and scores on average 2.2 goals, whereas Başakşehir in their last 5 has BTTS 40%, scores 1.8 and concedes 0.8, highlighting the visitors’ stronger offense. Additionally the visitors’ efficiency is higher (conversion rate 13% vs home 8%), and average shots on target are 4.31 for the home team and 3.75 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the seasonal 56%/75% BTTS, the visitors’ recent 80% and the above xG and conversion metrics, I assess BTTS at 72% vs 28% and recommend the 'yes' tip.

The average xG calculated from offensive and defensive values totals 2.67 expected goals: home 1.49 (xG for 1.53 vs opponents' xG against 1.45), away 1.18 (xG for 1.31 vs opponents' xG against 1.04). Both teams frequently feature in both-teams-to-score matches — Başakşehir 56% of such games with an average of 1.19 goals per game, Samsunspor 75% with an average of 1.50 goals per game. Season shares of matches over 1.5 goals are 69% for the home side and 81% for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches Over2.5 stood at 60% (home) and 80% (away), confirming a trend toward multi-goal outcomes. The home side averages 4.31 shots on target, the visitors 3.75, with shot conversion rates of 8.0% vs 13.0%, indicating greater efficiency by Samsunspor in converting chances. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I estimate Over1.5 85% vs Under1.5 15%), Over2.5 is moderately likely (~60%), while Over3.5 is less probable (~30%) despite occasional high-scoring results from Samsunspor.

I predict a Half-Time draw and a Samsunspor win at Full-Time (X/2). In the last five matches both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases, and the home side had a draw at half-time in 63% of their season appearances, which increases the probability of a draw after 45 minutes. Samsunspor dominate second halves: in 94% of their games there is at least one goal after the break and they average 1.69 goals after half-time, and in their last five fixtures they won 80% of matches. The visitors are more efficient (shot conversion 13% versus the hosts’ 8%) and scored 9 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 4 for the home side, which favors a turnaround after the break. İstanbul has a slightly higher xG (1.53 vs 1.31) and lower xG against (1.04 vs 1.45), which explains the even first half; therefore X/2 receives the highest probability (28%).