İstanbulspor vs BB Bodrumspor: match statistics

İstanbulspor are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and collected 12 points, while BB Bodrumspor have recorded just 2 victories, finishing this period with 6 points. The hosts have scored as many as 17 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.4 per game, compared with just 3 goals for the visitors, highlighting a significant difference in attacking efficiency. İstanbulspor’s defence conceded 7 goals during this period, but despite allowing only 5 goals, Bodrumspor lost 3 of their last 5 matches, largely due to limited attacking output. Both teams lost their only league matches so far this season, but Bodrumspor’s higher position—16th compared with 20th—does not offset the hosts’ significantly stronger results trend. Home advantage and İstanbulspor’s very high scoring rate strongly support a home win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as BB Bodrumspor have averaged just 0.6 goals over their last 5 matches, while both teams scored in 0% of those games. The visitors have produced only 0.98 xG per match during this period, although İstanbulspor’s defence allowed opponents 1.38 xG and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. İstanbulspor are in excellent offensive form, averaging 3.4 goals and 1.65 xG across their last 5 appearances, making their goal highly likely. At the same time, both teams scored in 80% of the hosts’ matches in this run, but such a high rate is primarily the result of their own finishing rather than Bodrumspor’s consistent attacking strength. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is only 30%, reinforcing the scenario in which at least one team, most likely the visitors, fails to score.

İstanbulspor have averaged 3.4 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with their games going over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases. BB Bodrumspor have scored just 0.6 goals per game during this period, but have conceded an average of 1.0 goal, which should give the hosts clear space to create chances. İstanbulspor’s attacking potential is supported by an average xG of 1.65, while Bodrumspor’s opponents are allowed an xG of 1.91. The visitors’ lower scoring efficiency limits the outlook for higher goal lines, but the expected total of 2.80 goals gives the strongest edge to Over 1.5.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an İstanbulspor win, as Bodrumspor have failed to score before the break in each of their last five matches and were level at half-time in 75% of them. İstanbulspor also do not necessarily need to take an early lead: during this period, they were ahead at half-time in only 20% of their matches, despite averaging 1.2 goals before the interval. After the break, the hosts improve significantly, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per match and conceding just 0.2, while the visitors score only 0.5 goals in that period. The full-time results also favour the hosts, who have won 4 of their last 5 matches and averaged 3.4 goals, compared with Bodrumspor’s 0.6. The main risk is İstanbulspor’s only available home performance, which ended in a 0–2 defeat, meaning the possibility of a second-half turnaround cannot be disregarded.