İstanbulspor vs Erokspor: match statistics

A draw looks the most likely outcome, as Erokspor have drawn all 4 away matches, while İstanbulspor have drawn 2 of their 3 home games. The hosts have the edge in attack: at home, they score an average of 1.33 goals and register 5.33 shots on target, compared with 0.75 goals and 3 shots on target for the visitors away from home. However, Erokspor are more effective defensively, conceding an average of 0.75 goals away, compared with 1.67 goals conceded by İstanbulspor at home. The teams’ average xG figures are similar — 1.38 for the hosts and 1.28 for the visitors — so the quality of chances created does not point to a clear favourite. Both teams are going through a difficult spell: İstanbulspor have won 1 of their last 5 matches, while Erokspor have yet to win, further suggesting a closely contested result.

The strongest indication against both teams scoring comes from İstanbulspor’s attack: they average just 0.25 goals at home and have failed to score in 75% of their matches. Erokspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their away games and fail to score themselves in 50%, so there is also a risk of a blank on their side. Across their last five matches, the teams averaged just 0.6 and 0.4 goals, respectively, while BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal) landed in 40% and 20% of those games. A countervailing factor is that İstanbulspor concede an average of 1.75 goals at home, while the teams’ xG figures are 1.41 and 1.28, indicating opportunities to score. However, their low finishing rates and frequent matches without a goal make it more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in any of İstanbulspor’s matches to date and in only 25% of Erokspor’s matches. Both teams have struggled to score, with the hosts averaging 0.25 goals and the visitors 0.75; moreover, İstanbulspor have failed to score in 75% of their matches. Their average xG figures of 1.41 and 1.28, respectively, point to greater attacking potential than their results so far and mean that 2–3 goals cannot be ruled out entirely. The hosts’ defence, which concedes an average of 1.75 goals and has shipped 11 goals across its last five matches, adds to the risk of a higher-scoring game. Even so, the 3.5 line offers more room for error than 2.5, particularly given that Under 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of both teams’ matches.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Erokspor were level at the break in 3 of their 4 matches, while İstanbulspor failed to score in the first half in all 4 of their games. Although the home side were more often trailing at half-time (3 times in 4), the visitors did not lead at the break once, so backing them to be ahead at half-time would be risky. A draw at full-time is supported by the fact that all 4 of Erokspor’s matches ended level, while their average of 0.75 goals scored does not point to a clear attacking advantage. İstanbulspor, meanwhile, averaged just 0.25 goals per match and lost 3 of their 4 games, making an away win a serious alternative. Therefore, X/X is the highest-rated scenario, but the home side’s poor finishing means X/2 remains only marginally less likely.